Preseason Rankings
Furman
Southern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#123
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#153
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#118
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#126
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 33.7% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 6.2% 1.5%
Average Seed 12.2 11.3 12.7
.500 or above 87.1% 96.3% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 95.8% 91.0%
Conference Champion 25.0% 34.4% 22.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four1.2% 1.9% 0.9%
First Round21.9% 32.7% 18.5%
Second Round5.2% 10.1% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.8% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.90.2 - 1.9
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.30.6 - 3.2
Quad 21.2 - 1.71.9 - 4.9
Quad 33.5 - 2.15.3 - 7.0
Quad 412.5 - 2.117.8 - 9.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-72 24%    
  Nov 13, 2018 218   Gardner-Webb W 74-68 81%    
  Nov 17, 2018 8   @ Villanova L 68-82 6%    
  Nov 25, 2018 294   @ UNC Asheville W 78-67 75%    
  Dec 01, 2018 307   Western Carolina W 78-67 90%    
  Dec 04, 2018 231   @ Elon W 76-69 64%    
  Dec 08, 2018 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 85-70 85%    
  Dec 11, 2018 232   Charleston Southern W 74-67 82%    
  Dec 15, 2018 197   UNC Wilmington W 80-75 76%    
  Dec 21, 2018 46   @ LSU L 72-79 21%    
  Dec 29, 2018 153   @ East Tennessee St. W 70-68 49%    
  Jan 03, 2019 272   Mercer W 74-65 85%    
  Jan 05, 2019 265   The Citadel W 91-82 84%    
  Jan 10, 2019 310   @ VMI W 78-66 77%    
  Jan 12, 2019 86   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-69 32%    
  Jan 19, 2019 97   @ Wofford L 72-73 35%    
  Jan 24, 2019 314   Chattanooga W 74-62 90%    
  Jan 26, 2019 322   Samford W 84-71 91%    
  Jan 31, 2019 265   @ The Citadel W 91-82 69%    
  Feb 02, 2019 272   @ Mercer W 74-65 69%    
  Feb 07, 2019 307   @ Western Carolina W 78-67 76%    
  Feb 09, 2019 153   East Tennessee St. W 70-68 68%    
  Feb 14, 2019 86   UNC Greensboro L 66-69 52%    
  Feb 16, 2019 310   VMI W 78-66 89%    
  Feb 23, 2019 97   Wofford L 72-73 56%    
  Feb 28, 2019 322   @ Samford W 84-71 79%    
  Mar 02, 2019 314   @ Chattanooga W 74-62 78%    
Projected Record 17.8 - 9.2 12.7 - 5.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1 6.7 7.8 5.0 1.6 25.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 6.2 8.4 5.4 1.4 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.7 6.8 2.5 0.3 21.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.4 8.4 10.5 11.6 14.2 14.1 12.3 9.2 5.0 1.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 5.0    4.6 0.4
16-2 85.1% 7.8    5.8 2.0 0.0
15-3 54.2% 6.7    3.3 2.8 0.6 0.0
14-4 22.3% 3.1    1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 4.5% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 16.5 7.1 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 88.8% 71.0% 17.8% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 61.2%
17-1 5.0% 72.8% 58.7% 14.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 34.0%
16-2 9.2% 50.9% 44.1% 6.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.5 12.2%
15-3 12.3% 35.7% 33.5% 2.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.9 3.2%
14-4 14.1% 24.3% 23.9% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 10.7 0.5%
13-5 14.2% 15.7% 15.6% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 11.9 0.1%
12-6 11.6% 11.5% 11.4% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 10.2 0.1%
11-7 10.5% 7.7% 7.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.7
10-8 8.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.1
9-9 5.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.2
8-10 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.5
7-11 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-12 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.5% 20.5% 2.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.5 5.0 5.1 3.7 1.9 0.7 77.5 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 0.5 28.9 28.9 28.4 13.4