Dayton
Atlantic 10
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.3#6
Expected Predictive Rating+20.2#5
Pace67.6#222
Improvement-1.9#257

Offense
Total Offense+10.9#4
First Shot+12.4#1
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#292
Layup/Dunks+6.8#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#49
Freethrows+1.4#74
Improvement-2.7#299

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#48
First Shot+4.2#61
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#67
Layups/Dunks+3.3#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#64
Freethrows+1.1#100
Improvement+0.8#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 60.2% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 95.7% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round93.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen64.3% n/a n/a
Elite Eight39.4% n/a n/a
Final Four21.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game10.6% n/a n/a
National Champion5.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 15 - 2
Quad 28 - 013 - 2
Quad 39 - 022 - 2
Quad 47 - 029 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 128   Indiana St. W 86-81 93%     1 - 0 +4.7 +8.8 -4.3
  Nov 16, 2019 314   Charleston Southern W 90-61 99%     2 - 0 +16.8 +10.2 +6.4
  Nov 19, 2019 232   Nebraska Omaha W 93-68 97%     3 - 0 +18.1 +15.7 +2.7
  Nov 25, 2019 89   Georgia W 80-61 83%     4 - 0 +25.0 +6.3 +18.2
  Nov 26, 2019 100   Virginia Tech W 89-62 85%     5 - 0 +32.0 +24.4 +9.1
  Nov 27, 2019 1   Kansas L 84-90 OT 33%     5 - 1 +14.7 +13.7 +1.6
  Dec 03, 2019 342   Houston Baptist W 99-68 99%     6 - 1 +13.6 +0.7 +9.9
  Dec 08, 2019 43   St. Mary's W 78-68 72%     7 - 1 +20.2 +14.7 +6.4
  Dec 14, 2019 166   Drake W 78-47 95%     8 - 1 +28.4 +5.0 +23.8
  Dec 17, 2019 85   North Texas W 71-58 89%     9 - 1 +16.1 +0.4 +16.3
  Dec 21, 2019 38   Colorado L 76-78 OT 70%     9 - 2 +8.9 +6.8 +2.2
  Dec 23, 2019 313   Grambling St. W 81-53 99%     10 - 2 +16.0 +11.2 +7.1
  Dec 30, 2019 164   North Florida W 77-59 95%     11 - 2 +15.4 -5.6 +20.5
  Jan 02, 2020 180   @ La Salle W 84-58 90%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +28.3 +12.9 +15.1
  Jan 05, 2020 257   @ Saint Joseph's W 80-67 95%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +10.4 +2.4 +7.8
  Jan 11, 2020 161   Massachusetts W 88-60 95%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +25.4 +7.5 +15.9
  Jan 14, 2020 73   Virginia Commonwealth W 79-65 87%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +18.1 +8.6 +9.3
  Jan 17, 2020 69   @ Saint Louis W 78-76 OT 71%     16 - 2 5 - 0 +12.7 +5.4 +7.1
  Jan 22, 2020 126   St. Bonaventure W 86-60 93%     17 - 2 6 - 0 +25.8 +18.6 +9.2
  Jan 25, 2020 52   @ Richmond W 87-79 66%     18 - 2 7 - 0 +20.2 +12.8 +6.7
  Jan 29, 2020 103   @ Duquesne W 73-69 79%     19 - 2 8 - 0 +11.7 +11.2 +0.9
  Feb 01, 2020 237   Fordham W 70-56 98%     20 - 2 9 - 0 +6.7 +12.9 -3.6
  Feb 08, 2020 69   Saint Louis W 71-65 86%     21 - 2 10 - 0 +10.6 +11.1 +0.2
  Feb 11, 2020 70   Rhode Island W 81-67 87%     22 - 2 11 - 0 +18.4 +8.0 +9.7
  Feb 15, 2020 161   @ Massachusetts W 71-63 88%     23 - 2 12 - 0 +11.5 +1.0 +10.6
  Feb 18, 2020 73   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 66-61 72%     24 - 2 13 - 0 +15.2 +8.6 +7.2
  Feb 22, 2020 103   Duquesne W 80-70 91%     25 - 2 14 - 0 +11.7 +13.5 -1.0
  Feb 25, 2020 169   @ George Mason W 62-55 89%     26 - 2 15 - 0 +10.1 -3.0 +13.7
  Feb 28, 2020 74   Davidson W 82-67 87%     27 - 2 16 - 0 +19.0 +18.4 +2.5
  Mar 04, 2020 70   @ Rhode Island W 84-57 71%     28 - 2 17 - 0 +37.4 +20.1 +17.9
  Mar 07, 2020 230   George Washington W 76-51 97%     29 - 2 18 - 0 +18.1 +9.0 +12.1
Projected Record 29 - 2 18 - 0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 100.0    100.0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.2 35.5 4.0 0.3
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.4 60.2 35.5 4.0 0.3