Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 100.0%   3   25 - 6 15 - 5 25 - 6 15 - 5 +17.7      +9.4 9 +8.3 8 76.6 36 +15.6 11 +14.0 4
11 Louisville 99.9%   4   24 - 7 14 - 5 24 - 7 14 - 5 +14.8      +8.4 12 +6.4 31 66.5 246 +14.7 14 +14.8 2
12 Florida St. 100.0%   2   26 - 5 16 - 3 26 - 5 16 - 3 +14.5      +6.6 29 +7.9 13 72.1 88 +17.7 6 +18.9 1
40 Virginia 99.7%   7   23 - 7 14 - 5 23 - 7 14 - 5 +10.4      -1.5 219 +12.0 1 53.4 353 +14.2 20 +14.8 3
45 North Carolina St. 50.2%   11   20 - 12 10 - 9 20 - 12 10 - 9 +10.0      +6.1 37 +3.8 74 71.7 102 +9.6 53 +9.4 5
46 Syracuse 3.5%   18 - 14 10 - 9 18 - 14 10 - 9 +10.0      +7.6 21 +2.4 103 68.7 183 +7.5 71 +8.7 9
51 Notre Dame 4.3%   20 - 12 10 - 9 20 - 12 10 - 9 +9.3      +6.5 33 +2.8 91 68.8 180 +8.8 58 +9.0 7
58 Georgia Tech 2.1%   16 - 14 10 - 9 16 - 14 10 - 9 +8.5      +1.2 154 +7.4 18 71.8 97 +8.3 62 +9.3 6
67 Clemson 0.1%   16 - 15 9 - 10 16 - 15 9 - 10 +7.7      +1.3 149 +6.4 32 64.8 288 +7.2 74 +8.8 8
68 North Carolina 0.0%   14 - 19 5 - 14 14 - 19 5 - 14 +7.7      +4.6 56 +3.1 86 73.5 67 +5.8 91 +2.4 15
92 Miami (FL) 0.0%   15 - 16 7 - 12 15 - 16 7 - 12 +5.5      +3.6 76 +1.9 117 69.0 171 +7.1 75 +6.1 10
94 Wake Forest 0.0%   13 - 18 6 - 13 13 - 18 6 - 13 +5.3      +4.9 51 +0.4 157 72.4 83 +4.5 107 +4.4 12
100 Virginia Tech 0.0%   16 - 16 6 - 13 16 - 16 6 - 13 +5.0      +1.4 143 +3.6 76 63.2 313 +5.8 90 +3.8 13
104 Pittsburgh 0.0%   16 - 17 5 - 14 16 - 17 5 - 14 +4.7      +1.4 146 +3.3 81 63.3 309 +5.7 93 +2.7 14
159 Boston College 0.0%   13 - 19 6 - 13 13 - 19 6 - 13 +0.6      -1.6 220 +2.1 109 70.9 123 +3.8 116 +5.1 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 2.0 100.0
Louisville 3.0 100.0
Florida St. 1.0 100.0
Virginia 3.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 5.0 100.0
Syracuse 5.0 100.0
Notre Dame 5.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 5.0 100.0
Clemson 9.0 100.0
North Carolina 14.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 10.0 100.0
Wake Forest 11.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 11.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 14.0 100.0
Boston College 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 15 - 5 100.0
Louisville 14 - 6 100.0
Florida St. 16 - 4 100.0
Virginia 14 - 6 100.0
North Carolina St. 10 - 10 100.0
Syracuse 10 - 10 100.0
Notre Dame 10 - 10 100.0
Georgia Tech 10 - 10 100.0
Clemson 9 - 11 100.0
North Carolina 5 - 15 100.0
Miami (FL) 7 - 13 100.0
Wake Forest 6 - 14 100.0
Virginia Tech 6 - 14 100.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 15 100.0
Boston College 6 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke
Louisville
Florida St. 100.0% 100.0
Virginia
North Carolina St.
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
Miami (FL)
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   12.3 37.5 35.2 14.1 0.9 100.0%
Louisville 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 4   1.7 8.0 26.0 47.3 15.0 1.8 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Florida St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   20.4 50.4 24.7 4.5 0.0
Virginia 99.7% 0.0% 99.7% 7   0.0 0.3 6.2 27.3 47.5 16.1 2.3 0.0 0.3 99.7%
North Carolina St. 50.2% 0.0% 50.2% 11   0.6 2.7 14.7 29.4 2.9 49.8 50.2%
Syracuse 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 1.1 2.4 0.0 96.5 3.5%
Notre Dame 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0 1.6 2.7 95.7 4.3%
Georgia Tech 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.5 1.5 0.0 97.9 2.1%
Clemson 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.1%
North Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.9% 67.1% 42.8% 25.1% 14.6% 8.0%
Louisville 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 82.9% 50.0% 23.9% 11.8% 5.4% 2.3%
Florida St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.2% 53.7% 28.4% 12.9% 6.0% 2.5%
Virginia 99.7% 0.0% 99.7% 51.1% 16.9% 6.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2%
North Carolina St. 50.2% 25.2% 37.5% 15.4% 5.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Syracuse 3.5% 3.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 4.3% 4.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 2.1% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Clemson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.6 0.1 44.6 50.7 4.5 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 4.4 0.2 59.4 38.9 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 3.3 0.0 1.4 13.3 42.4 37.5 5.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 94.7% 1.9 5.3 26.6 40.8 24.0 3.2 0.1
Elite Eight 73.3% 1.0 26.7 46.7 23.3 3.2 0.1
Final Four 45.2% 0.5 54.8 38.6 6.4 0.2
Final Game 25.6% 0.3 74.4 24.4 1.2
Champion 13.1% 0.1 86.9 13.1