Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
18 Arizona 94.9%   8   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +13.7      +6.0 41 +7.7 15 70.8 124 +10.3 43 +9.1 5
20 Oregon 100.0%   4   24 - 7 13 - 5 24 - 7 13 - 5 +13.6      +9.6 6 +4.0 71 62.8 321 +14.7 13 +13.4 1
38 Colorado 95.9%   8   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +10.9      +5.1 50 +5.8 38 68.6 194 +10.2 47 +9.0 6
50 Stanford 30.3%   20 - 12 9 - 9 20 - 12 9 - 9 +9.4      +1.2 151 +8.2 10 69.0 175 +8.0 64 +7.6 7
53 USC 88.0%   9   22 - 9 11 - 7 22 - 9 11 - 7 +9.1      +1.3 147 +7.8 14 70.7 129 +11.5 34 +10.9 4
56 Washington 0.0%   15 - 17 5 - 13 15 - 17 5 - 13 +8.8      +2.4 108 +6.4 33 72.0 91 +4.8 105 +2.0 12
60 Arizona St. 86.2%   10   20 - 11 11 - 7 20 - 11 11 - 7 +8.3      +3.0 94 +5.3 50 79.4 15 +10.4 40 +11.1 3
71 UCLA 32.9%   18 - 12 12 - 6 18 - 12 12 - 6 +7.3      +4.7 52 +2.5 97 62.8 318 +8.7 60 +12.6 2
82 Oregon St. 0.1%   18 - 13 7 - 11 18 - 13 7 - 11 +6.4      +6.0 40 +0.4 156 64.3 294 +6.8 80 +5.7 9
105 Utah 0.0%   16 - 15 7 - 11 16 - 15 7 - 11 +4.6      +3.2 86 +1.3 128 66.2 253 +6.9 78 +5.6 10
122 Washington St. 0.0%   16 - 16 6 - 12 16 - 16 6 - 12 +3.2      +0.1 177 +3.1 85 74.3 55 +3.7 120 +4.3 11
144 California 0.0%   14 - 18 7 - 11 14 - 18 7 - 11 +1.5      -0.2 186 +1.7 125 63.0 315 +4.4 109 +5.8 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 5.0 100.0
Oregon 1.0 100.0
Colorado 5.0 100.0
Stanford 7.0 100.0
USC 3.0 100.0
Washington 12.0 100.0
Arizona St. 3.0 100.0
UCLA 2.0 100.0
Oregon St. 8.0 100.0
Utah 8.0 100.0
Washington St. 11.0 100.0
California 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 10 - 8 100.0
Oregon 13 - 5 100.0
Colorado 10 - 8 100.0
Stanford 9 - 9 100.0
USC 11 - 7 100.0
Washington 5 - 13 100.0
Arizona St. 11 - 7 100.0
UCLA 12 - 6 100.0
Oregon St. 7 - 11 100.0
Utah 7 - 11 100.0
Washington St. 6 - 12 100.0
California 7 - 11 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona
Oregon 100.0% 100.0
Colorado
Stanford
USC
Washington
Arizona St.
UCLA
Oregon St.
Utah
Washington St.
California


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 94.9% 0.0% 94.9% 8   1.0 9.9 20.2 32.5 21.8 9.0 0.6 5.1 94.9%
Oregon 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   0.3 4.3 26.4 52.8 15.6 0.7
Colorado 95.9% 0.0% 95.9% 8   0.0 1.7 9.5 37.5 35.9 10.8 0.5 4.1 95.9%
Stanford 30.3% 0.0% 30.3% 0.1 0.7 6.0 20.5 2.9 69.7 30.3%
USC 88.0% 0.0% 88.0% 9   0.2 2.3 16.0 36.2 28.0 5.4 12.0 88.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arizona St. 86.2% 0.0% 86.2% 10   1.0 13.6 36.9 29.4 5.3 0.0 13.8 86.2%
UCLA 32.9% 0.0% 32.9% 0.3 2.3 11.3 18.1 1.0 67.2 32.9%
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.1%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 94.9% 0.2% 94.8% 58.0% 22.8% 11.8% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9%
Oregon 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 80.1% 44.9% 18.7% 8.0% 2.9% 1.1%
Colorado 95.9% 0.2% 95.9% 45.5% 12.6% 5.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Stanford 30.3% 19.4% 20.4% 7.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
USC 88.0% 2.1% 87.1% 33.4% 8.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 86.2% 2.2% 85.0% 30.9% 6.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
UCLA 32.9% 13.2% 24.8% 7.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.9 13.3 47.2 33.5 5.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 1.4 17.7 54.2 24.6 2.0
2nd Round 98.7% 2.6 1.3 11.0 32.9 35.6 16.2 2.8 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 69.8% 1.0 30.2 45.0 20.8 3.8 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 36.9% 0.4 63.1 32.3 4.4 0.2 0.0
Final Four 15.9% 0.2 84.1 15.2 0.7
Final Game 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.0 0.0
Champion 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3