Preseason Rankings
Big West
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
106 UC Irvine 39.1%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 4 +4.0      +1.2 133 +2.8 94 64.8 287 0.0 1 0.0 1
160 UC Santa Barbara 19.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 6 +0.1      +0.7 146 -0.6 186 63.0 324 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 Hawaii 12.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 7 -1.8      -1.7 229 -0.1 166 66.4 243 0.0 1 0.0 1
208 Cal St. Northridge 9.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 7 -2.9      +1.6 124 -4.6 304 74.8 54 0.0 1 0.0 1
213 Cal St. Fullerton 9.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 8 -3.0      -3.3 269 +0.2 156 74.4 59 0.0 1 0.0 1
266 UC Davis 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 9 -5.8      -5.5 316 -0.4 173 65.6 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
289 Long Beach St. 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -7.2      -3.5 274 -3.7 280 77.7 23 0.0 1 0.0 1
296 UC Riverside 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 10 -7.7      -4.5 302 -3.2 266 60.8 340 0.0 1 0.0 1
327 Cal Poly 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 11 -10.4      -4.4 300 -6.0 333 65.5 272 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
UC Irvine 2.0 52.5 21.4 11.4 6.4 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2
UC Santa Barbara 3.2 23.0 22.8 17.7 12.8 9.1 6.5 4.4 2.6 1.1
Hawaii 3.9 14.7 17.2 17.1 14.4 12.6 9.8 7.4 4.6 2.2
Cal St. Northridge 4.3 10.7 13.9 16.0 15.2 13.7 11.6 9.1 6.3 3.5
Cal St. Fullerton 4.3 10.4 14.3 15.5 15.1 13.6 11.5 9.2 6.5 3.9
UC Davis 5.5 4.1 7.5 10.2 12.7 14.6 15.1 14.1 12.5 9.2
Long Beach St. 6.0 2.5 5.0 7.7 10.6 12.4 14.8 16.7 16.3 14.0
UC Riverside 6.2 2.3 4.6 6.8 9.8 11.5 14.9 16.7 17.8 15.6
Cal Poly 7.2 0.7 1.9 3.1 5.3 8.0 10.7 15.9 22.8 31.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UC Irvine 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.3 9.2 12.0 14.9 16.2 15.5 11.1 5.5
UC Santa Barbara 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.7 7.1 9.5 11.7 13.3 13.2 12.9 10.1 6.9 3.8 1.0
Hawaii 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.7 7.4 9.9 11.8 12.5 12.7 11.6 9.5 6.5 4.1 1.8 0.5
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.8 9.6 11.1 12.7 12.6 12.0 10.2 7.3 4.8 2.9 1.0 0.3
Cal St. Fullerton 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.7 7.0 9.3 11.3 12.5 12.7 11.7 9.9 7.4 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.2
UC Davis 7 - 9 0.5 1.6 3.8 6.3 9.2 11.2 12.4 12.9 12.2 10.2 7.9 5.5 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Long Beach St. 6 - 10 0.9 3.0 5.5 9.3 11.3 13.1 13.1 12.4 10.2 8.2 5.7 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 6 - 10 1.1 3.3 6.6 9.8 12.2 13.2 13.2 12.1 9.6 7.5 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 5 - 11 3.5 8.4 12.4 14.5 15.0 13.3 11.0 8.3 5.7 3.7 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 52.5% 40.3 10.3 1.7 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 23.0% 15.2 6.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 14.7% 9.0 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 10.7% 6.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 10.4% 6.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 4.1% 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 2.5% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 39.1% 38.5% 0.6% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.1 7.1 9.7 8.6 6.2 3.2 60.9 1.0%
UC Santa Barbara 19.0% 18.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 4.5 4.9 4.0 81.0 0.2%
Hawaii 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.2 3.8 3.1 87.2 0.1%
Cal St. Northridge 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.9 90.4 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.3 3.5 90.9 0.0%
UC Davis 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.6 95.6 0.0%
Long Beach St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 96.9 0.0%
UC Riverside 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 97.4 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 98.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 39.1% 1.7% 38.4% 7.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 19.0% 2.0% 18.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 12.8% 1.5% 12.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 9.6% 1.7% 8.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 9.1% 2.1% 8.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 4.4% 1.9% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 3.1% 1.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 2.6% 1.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
1st Round 94.2% 0.9 5.8 93.7 0.5
2nd Round 11.2% 0.1 88.8 11.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0