Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
80 Belmont 48.3%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 7 15 - 3 +6.7      +5.7 44 +1.1 129 76.0 34 0.0 1 0.0 1
119 Murray St. 26.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 13 - 5 +3.2      +2.3 107 +0.9 135 71.1 113 0.0 1 0.0 1
211 Austin Peay 6.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3.0      +0.5 159 -3.5 275 71.1 115 0.0 1 0.0 1
216 Jacksonville St. 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -3.2      -3.1 264 -0.1 165 68.7 176 0.0 1 0.0 1
255 Eastern Illinois 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -5.3      -1.4 222 -3.9 284 67.2 220 0.0 1 0.0 1
258 Tennessee Martin 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 9 - 9 -5.4      +0.5 157 -5.9 332 70.0 142 0.0 1 0.0 1
264 Morehead St. 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -5.7      -1.9 234 -3.9 285 68.2 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
272 Tennessee St. 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -6.2      -3.1 266 -3.1 263 72.6 82 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 Eastern Kentucky 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -6.3      -1.5 224 -4.8 308 90.2 2 0.0 1 0.0 1
294 Southeast Missouri St. 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -7.6      -2.4 250 -5.2 319 69.4 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
310 Tennessee Tech 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8.9      -6.6 333 -2.3 242 70.5 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
324 SIU Edwardsville 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -10.4      -4.3 297 -6.1 334 72.3 91 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Belmont 1.8 59.3 21.0 9.4 4.7 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Murray St. 2.7 31.4 28.7 15.3 9.5 5.9 3.5 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
Austin Peay 5.4 6.3 10.8 13.6 13.3 11.5 10.3 9.2 7.8 6.1 4.9 4.0 2.3
Jacksonville St. 5.3 6.6 11.9 14.3 13.1 11.5 9.7 8.7 7.0 6.2 4.7 3.8 2.2
Eastern Illinois 6.3 3.0 7.8 10.3 11.2 11.3 10.9 10.1 9.6 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.1
Tennessee Martin 6.5 3.2 7.4 9.3 10.0 10.8 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.1 7.4 6.5 5.2
Morehead St. 6.6 2.6 6.2 9.0 10.5 10.7 11.1 10.5 10.2 8.7 8.5 6.8 5.2
Tennessee St. 7.3 1.7 4.5 6.7 7.9 9.3 9.8 10.5 11.1 10.7 10.7 9.4 7.6
Eastern Kentucky 6.9 2.1 5.5 8.1 9.3 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.3 9.8 9.0 8.5 6.2
Southeast Missouri St. 7.7 1.4 4.0 5.4 6.8 8.0 9.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.4
Tennessee Tech 8.4 0.8 1.8 3.9 5.4 6.7 7.7 9.2 10.4 11.9 12.8 14.0 15.6
SIU Edwardsville 9.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 3.9 5.0 6.5 8.0 9.4 11.5 13.9 17.2 20.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.4 6.8 10.1 13.6 16.7 18.2 15.5 9.2
Murray St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.3 9.0 11.7 13.4 14.7 14.3 11.5 6.9 2.5
Austin Peay 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.5 8.7 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.9 10.0 8.3 5.8 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.1
Jacksonville St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.2 6.5 8.0 9.9 10.6 11.8 11.2 10.4 8.7 6.0 4.2 2.0 0.9 0.1
Eastern Illinois 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.4 7.1 8.8 10.7 11.4 11.8 11.0 9.6 8.0 5.6 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
Tennessee Martin 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.4 5.3 7.1 9.1 10.8 11.8 11.5 10.3 8.9 7.4 5.2 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Morehead St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.3 5.3 7.7 9.4 11.2 11.8 11.7 10.7 8.8 7.0 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 3.1 4.9 7.4 9.4 11.4 12.4 11.8 10.5 8.8 7.2 4.9 3.3 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.2 6.6 8.6 10.2 11.3 11.9 11.0 10.1 8.1 6.4 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 7 - 11 0.6 1.8 4.1 5.9 8.8 10.6 11.8 12.1 11.4 9.6 7.8 5.7 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 6 - 12 1.2 3.3 6.1 8.5 10.7 11.6 12.4 11.8 9.9 8.3 6.0 4.6 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 6 - 12 1.6 4.4 8.0 10.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 10.8 8.6 6.4 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 59.3% 47.5 10.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 31.4% 21.7 8.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 6.3% 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 6.6% 3.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 3.0% 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 48.3% 46.5% 1.8% 13   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.5 4.5 12.1 12.5 7.8 3.9 0.8 51.7 3.4%
Murray St. 26.3% 25.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.1 4.3 7.0 6.8 4.2 1.5 73.7 0.6%
Austin Peay 6.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.0 93.9 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 6.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.0 1.5 94.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 97.0 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 96.8 0.0%
Morehead St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 97.4 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 97.8 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 97.9 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 98.5 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 48.3% 1.3% 47.7% 13.3% 4.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Murray St. 26.3% 0.7% 26.0% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 6.1% 0.5% 5.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 6.0% 0.5% 5.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.0% 0.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.2% 0.4% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 2.6% 0.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.2% 0.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.1% 0.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 1.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.7 2.3
1st Round 98.1% 1.0 1.9 96.5 1.5
2nd Round 19.6% 0.2 80.4 19.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2 0.0
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0