IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Ohio Valley
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.7	#80
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.0	#34
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.7	#44

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.1	#129

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.1%	1.4%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	2.8%	3.7%	0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	48.3%	52.1%	39.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	3.4%	4.7%	0.9%
Average Seed	12.1	11.8	13.1

.500 or above	97.1%	98.6%	93.6%
.500 or above in Conference	98.6%	99.0%	97.6%
Conference Champion	59.3%	63.5%	49.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	1.3%	1.5%	0.9%
First Round	47.7%	51.4%	39.1%
Second Round	13.3%	15.5%	8.1%
Sweet Sixteen	4.4%	5.3%	2.4%
Elite Eight	1.2%	1.5%	0.5%
Final Four	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	2 - 2	2 - 3
Quad 3	7 - 3	9 - 6
Quad 4	15 - 2	24 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2019	187	@ Illinois St.	W	78-72	70%
Nov 11, 2019	142	Samford	W	86-77	79%
Nov 16, 2019	101	@ Boston College	L	76-77	48%
Nov 18, 2019	308	High Point	W	80-62	95%
Nov 20, 2019	177	@ Lipscomb	W	87-82	67%
Nov 23, 2019	141	@ Saint Louis	W	75-72	60%
Nov 26, 2019	192	@ Eastern Washington	W	81-75	70%
Nov 30, 2019	174	@ Middle Tennessee	W	79-74	66%
Dec 03, 2019	177	Lipscomb	W	90-79	83%
Dec 18, 2019	320	Kennesaw St.	W	88-68	95%
Dec 21, 2019	45	Alabama	L	77-81	37%
Dec 28, 2019	76	@ Western Kentucky	L	77-80	39%
Jan 02, 2020	324	SIU Edwardsville	W	90-70	96%
Jan 04, 2020	255	Eastern Illinois	W	85-70	90%
Jan 09, 2020	294	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	85-74	83%
Jan 11, 2020	258	@ Tennessee Martin	W	86-77	78%
Jan 16, 2020	274	Eastern Kentucky	W	98-82	91%
Jan 18, 2020	264	Morehead St.	W	86-71	90%
Jan 23, 2020	119	@ Murray St.	W	80-79	52%
Jan 25, 2020	211	@ Austin Peay	W	84-77	71%
Jan 30, 2020	310	@ Tennessee Tech	W	83-70	86%
Feb 01, 2020	216	@ Jacksonville St.	W	79-72	71%
Feb 06, 2020	119	Murray St.	W	83-76	70%
Feb 08, 2020	211	Austin Peay	W	87-74	85%
Feb 13, 2020	272	Tennessee St.	W	88-72	91%
Feb 15, 2020	216	Jacksonville St.	W	82-69	86%
Feb 20, 2020	264	@ Morehead St.	W	83-74	78%
Feb 22, 2020	274	@ Eastern Kentucky	W	95-85	80%
Feb 27, 2020	310	Tennessee Tech	W	86-67	94%
Feb 29, 2020	272	@ Tennessee St.	W	85-75	80%
Projected Record						23 - 7	15 - 3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.3	5.1	11.3	16.7	15.5	9.2		59.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.8	4.9	7.2	5.3	1.5	0.0			21.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.4	3.2	3.3	1.2	0.1					9.4	3rd
4th										0.1	0.7	1.9	1.4	0.4	0.0						4.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0							2.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0								1.4	6th
7th								0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1										0.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0											0.4	8th
9th						0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0											0.2	9th
10th					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0													0.1	10th
11th					0.0	0.0	0.0														0.1	11th
12th				0.0	0.0	0.0															0.0	12th

Total				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.5	2.6	4.4	6.8	10.1	13.6	16.7	18.2	15.5	9.2			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	9.2		9.2
17-1	99.9%	15.5		14.7	0.7
16-2	91.6%	16.7		13.7	2.9	0.1
15-3	67.6%	11.3		7.3	3.7	0.3	0.0
14-4	37.8%	5.1		2.3	2.1	0.7	0.1
13-5	13.4%	1.3		0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.0%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	59.3%	59.3		47.5	10.0	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	9.2%		84.4%	76.6%	7.8%	8.8		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.5	0.5	1.2	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.4		33.2%
17-1	15.5%		72.2%	67.4%	4.8%	11.5				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.8	2.1	3.8	2.4	0.7	0.1	0.0	4.3		14.7%
16-2	18.2%		59.0%	57.4%	1.6%	12.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	1.0	3.9	3.6	1.5	0.3	0.0	7.5		3.8%
15-3	16.7%		49.4%	49.0%	0.4%	13.2										0.0	0.0	0.2	2.1	3.1	2.1	0.8	0.1	8.5		0.7%
14-4	13.6%		38.3%	38.2%	0.1%	13.6											0.0	0.0	0.6	1.8	1.7	0.9	0.1	8.4		0.1%
13-5	10.1%		30.9%	30.9%		14.1												0.0	0.1	0.7	1.1	1.0	0.2	7.0
12-6	6.8%		20.0%	20.0%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	5.4
11-7	4.4%		10.7%	10.7%		14.8														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	4.0
10-8	2.6%		7.1%	7.1%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.4
9-9	1.5%		4.2%	4.2%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4
8-10	0.7%		5.5%	5.5%		15.9																0.0	0.0	0.7
7-11	0.4%		2.1%	2.1%		15.1																0.0	0.0	0.4
6-12	0.2%																							0.2
5-13	0.1%																							0.1
4-14	0.0%																							0.0
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		48.3%	46.5%	1.8%	12.1		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.6	1.0	1.5	4.5	12.1	12.5	7.8	3.9	0.8	51.7		3.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.7%	100.0%	4.1	3.4	7.2	21.9	30.0	26.3	7.2	2.5	1.1	0.2	0.1	0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	87.9%	5.9			10.6	23.4	12.8	14.2	12.1	0.7		2.1	11.3	0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	98.6%	7.1			1.4		24.3	41.4	1.4	2.9	4.3		21.4	1.4