Preseason Rankings
Evansville
Missouri Valley
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#182
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.3#92
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#245
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 7.3% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 33.6% 47.7% 23.3%
.500 or above in Conference 39.2% 48.8% 32.2%
Conference Champion 5.2% 7.6% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 19.3% 13.7% 23.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round5.0% 7.1% 3.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 86 - 14
Quad 46 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 120   Ball St. L 73-75 42%    
  Nov 12, 2019 2   @ Kentucky L 58-82 1%    
  Nov 18, 2019 89   SMU L 67-71 36%    
  Nov 22, 2019 203   East Carolina W 74-73 52%    
  Nov 30, 2019 253   @ IUPUI W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 04, 2019 283   Western Illinois W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 07, 2019 150   Miami (OH) W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 14, 2019 167   @ Green Bay L 78-83 35%    
  Dec 16, 2019 216   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 21, 2019 119   Murray St. L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 31, 2019 125   @ Missouri St. L 66-74 26%    
  Jan 04, 2020 199   Valparaiso W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 08, 2020 136   Bradley L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 11, 2020 109   @ Loyola Chicago L 60-69 23%    
  Jan 15, 2020 158   @ Indiana St. L 72-77 34%    
  Jan 18, 2020 125   Missouri St. L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 22, 2020 145   Drake W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 26, 2020 199   @ Valparaiso L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 29, 2020 187   @ Illinois St. L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 01, 2020 114   Northern Iowa L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 05, 2020 207   Southern Illinois W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 09, 2020 136   @ Bradley L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 12, 2020 109   Loyola Chicago L 63-66 41%    
  Feb 16, 2020 145   @ Drake L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 20, 2020 207   @ Southern Illinois L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 23, 2020 158   Indiana St. W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 26, 2020 114   @ Northern Iowa L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 29, 2020 187   Illinois St. W 71-68 60%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 4.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.5 1.8 3.0 3.5 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.9 10th
Total 0.5 1.8 3.3 5.6 7.8 9.4 10.1 11.2 11.1 10.3 8.8 6.9 5.2 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 98.2% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 85.3% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 63.4% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 35.3% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.4% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 75.0% 28.1% 46.9% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.2%
17-1 0.2% 53.7% 45.4% 8.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.1%
16-2 0.6% 46.6% 35.7% 10.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 16.9%
15-3 1.2% 30.2% 28.5% 1.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 2.4%
14-4 2.3% 23.4% 22.6% 0.8% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 1.0%
13-5 3.5% 17.7% 17.4% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.9 0.3%
12-6 5.2% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.0%
11-7 6.9% 10.9% 10.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.2
10-8 8.8% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.1
9-9 10.3% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.0
8-10 11.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.8
7-11 11.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.1
6-12 10.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
5-13 9.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
3-15 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.6
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 5.2% 5.0% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 94.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%