Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#230
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.2#60
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#273
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.8% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 28.3% 42.9% 19.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.8% 56.7% 40.9%
Conference Champion 2.9% 4.5% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.6% 6.1%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round3.3% 4.7% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 33 - 63 - 12
Quad 48 - 411 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 224   @ South Dakota St. L 76-79 37%    
  Nov 15, 2019 153   North Dakota St. L 70-74 34%    
  Nov 16, 2019 196   Stony Brook L 71-73 44%    
  Nov 17, 2019 291   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-67 51%    
  Nov 30, 2019 291   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-64 71%    
  Dec 03, 2019 186   Sam Houston St. W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 13, 2019 37   @ Creighton L 67-85 6%    
  Dec 15, 2019 195   @ Nebraska Omaha L 73-78 35%    
  Dec 21, 2019 13   @ Texas Tech L 58-81 3%    
  Dec 30, 2019 38   @ Oklahoma L 65-83 6%    
  Jan 02, 2020 228   @ California Baptist L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 09, 2020 234   UMKC W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 11, 2020 351   Chicago St. W 84-68 92%    
  Jan 16, 2020 168   @ Seattle L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 18, 2020 236   @ Utah Valley L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 25, 2020 55   New Mexico St. L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 30, 2020 137   Grand Canyon L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 01, 2020 197   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 06, 2020 234   @ UMKC L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 08, 2020 351   @ Chicago St. W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 13, 2020 236   Utah Valley W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 15, 2020 168   Seattle L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 22, 2020 55   @ New Mexico St. L 64-80 9%    
  Feb 27, 2020 197   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 29, 2020 137   @ Grand Canyon L 69-77 24%    
  Mar 07, 2020 228   California Baptist W 77-74 59%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.4 1.1 0.2 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.6 6.0 2.3 0.3 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 5.4 6.2 1.9 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 5.7 6.0 1.6 0.1 15.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 6.0 4.9 1.4 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.8 5.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.9 8.0 10.9 12.5 13.8 13.0 11.6 9.0 6.2 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 81.8% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-3 47.1% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
12-4 18.9% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 69.2% 53.8% 15.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3%
15-1 0.3% 37.6% 37.1% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8%
14-2 0.8% 26.8% 26.7% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2%
13-3 2.1% 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0%
12-4 3.6% 13.7% 13.5% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1 0.2%
11-5 6.2% 10.5% 10.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.6
10-6 9.0% 5.2% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.6
9-7 11.6% 3.9% 3.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.1
8-8 13.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.8
7-9 13.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.6
6-10 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.4
5-11 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
4-12 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
3-13 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.9
2-14 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%