Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
237 Texas Southern 27.4%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 8 7 - 2 -4.6      -0.9 196 -3.8 283 78.6 21 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 Southern 25.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 12 - 5 -5.9      -3.7 276 -2.3 240 65.9 256 0.0 1 0.0 1
300 Jackson St. 14.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 10 7 - 3 -8.0      -6.9 328 -1.1 206 69.9 143 0.0 1 0.0 1
302 Prairie View 13.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 11 7 - 3 -8.3      -5.7 315 -2.6 248 73.9 58 0.0 1 0.0 1
316 Grambling St. 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 9 6 - 4 -10.1      -7.2 330 -2.9 260 69.8 147 0.0 1 0.0 1
334 Alcorn St. 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 8 - 10 -13.4      -5.9 319 -7.5 336 72.1 85 0.0 1 0.0 1
338 Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 7 - 11 -14.8      -11.2 342 -3.5 277 65.0 274 0.0 1 0.0 1
343 Alabama A&M 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 16 6 - 12 -16.9      -11.4 343 -5.4 315 67.7 216 0.0 1 0.0 1
344 Alabama St. 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 12 6 - 12 -17.6      -12.4 344 -5.2 311 71.1 110 0.0 1 0.0 1
348 Mississippi Valley 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 14 3 - 7 -21.7      -9.4 339 -12.3 348 89.2 1 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Texas Southern 4.4 0.9 12.5 22.1 21.6 16.9 11.5 7.6 4.5 2.0 0.4
Southern 1.7 69.7 16.3 5.4 2.8 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1
Jackson St. 4.9 2.9 11.7 15.6 16.0 14.5 14.0 11.5 8.2 4.5 1.1
Prairie View 5.1 2.5 10.7 14.6 15.7 14.6 14.1 11.8 9.1 5.5 1.3
Grambling St. 5.6 1.7 7.7 11.3 12.8 13.8 14.6 14.1 12.6 8.7 2.7
Alcorn St. 4.1 15.8 23.7 13.2 8.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 6.8 5.6 2.7
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.7 11.6 18.4 12.9 9.4 8.9 8.7 9.1 9.0 7.6 4.3
Alabama A&M 5.7 6.1 12.2 10.5 8.8 8.1 9.4 10.8 12.5 12.7 8.9
Alabama St. 6.1 5.1 10.0 9.4 7.7 8.3 8.6 11.0 12.5 15.4 12.0
Mississippi Valley 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.7 7.0 13.4 25.0 47.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 7 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 8.2 15.2 23.2 27.1 20.3
Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.1 4.7 7.1 9.7 11.9 14.0 14.4 12.9 10.6 6.3 2.2
Jackson St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 7.3 12.2 17.1 20.0 19.5 12.8 5.5
Prairie View 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.2 8.2 12.7 17.4 20.1 18.3 12.0 4.9
Grambling St. 6 - 12 0.2 1.1 3.4 6.5 10.4 15.5 18.4 17.9 15.3 8.5 2.9
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.9 5.5 8.4 10.7 11.7 12.1 11.5 10.5 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 2.9 5.4 7.8 10.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 10.5 8.4 6.4 4.4 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 6 - 12 0.9 3.1 5.9 9.2 11.2 12.9 12.6 11.2 10.2 7.9 5.7 4.1 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 6 - 12 1.5 4.2 7.6 10.9 12.1 12.9 12.1 11.2 8.7 6.9 4.7 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 10.1 18.2 21.3 19.1 15.0 8.8 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 0.9% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern 69.7% 60.1 7.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 2.9% 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Prairie View 2.5% 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grambling St. 1.7% 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 15.8% 10.8 4.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 11.6% 7.5 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 6.1% 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 5.0% 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 23.5 72.6 0.0%
Southern 25.3% 25.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.7 20.0 74.7 0.0%
Jackson St. 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 13.1 85.9 0.0%
Prairie View 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 11.8 86.7 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 8.3 91.2 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.7 95.2 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 3.0 96.9 0.0%
Alabama A&M 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Texas Southern 27.4% 19.5% 18.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 25.3% 15.9% 17.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 14.1% 11.6% 8.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 13.3% 10.1% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.8% 7.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 4.8% 4.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 1.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 59.9% 0.6 40.1 59.9
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0