Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2020-21

Last Updated: Nov 24, 2020

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Baylor Auto 90.0% 25.5% 64.5% 86.6%
1  Gonzaga Auto 95.8% 65.8% 30.0% 87.7%
1  Villanova Auto 90.6% 33.1% 57.5% 86.0%
1  Kansas At-Large 86.0% 20.4% 65.6% 82.4%
2  Virginia At-Large 88.1% 20.2% 67.9% 85.1%
2  West Virginia At-Large 81.6% 16.4% 65.2% 78.0%
2  Duke Auto 88.7% 21.7% 67.0% 85.6%
2  Kentucky Auto 83.8% 21.3% 62.5% 79.5%
3  Iowa At-Large 79.3% 12.9% 66.4% 76.2%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 78.9% 12.9% 66.0% 75.8%
3  Wisconsin Auto 81.5% 14.0% 67.5% 78.5%
3  Illinois At-Large 74.2% 11.5% 62.7% 70.8%
4  Creighton At-Large 77.7% 20.3% 57.4% 72.0%
4  Texas At-Large 73.9% 12.6% 61.3% 70.1%
4  Michigan At-Large 72.8% 9.6% 63.2% 69.9%
4  Texas Tech At-Large 77.1% 13.3% 63.8% 73.6%
5  North Carolina At-Large 69.9% 10.4% 59.5% 66.4%
5  Indiana At-Large 60.1% 7.3% 52.9% 57.0%
5  Ohio St. At-Large 70.8% 9.6% 61.2% 67.7%
5  Florida St. At-Large 76.2% 12.3% 63.9% 72.9%
6  Oregon Auto 73.2% 19.2% 54.1% 66.9%
6  Tennessee At-Large 76.9% 16.3% 60.7% 72.4%
6  Louisville At-Large 68.4% 8.3% 60.0% 65.5%
6  Florida At-Large 72.4% 15.1% 57.3% 67.5%
7  Purdue At-Large 59.6% 6.2% 53.4% 56.9%
7  Rutgers At-Large 47.2% 4.7% 42.5% 44.6%
7  UCLA At-Large 71.7% 15.5% 56.2% 66.5%
7  Arizona St. At-Large 70.9% 16.7% 54.2% 65.1%
8  Oklahoma At-Large 52.8% 6.4% 46.4% 49.6%
8  Alabama At-Large 61.5% 9.7% 51.8% 57.3%
8  Minnesota At-Large 47.3% 4.2% 43.1% 45.0%
8  Houston Auto 77.9% 33.8% 44.1% 66.6%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Maryland At-Large 51.9% 3.8% 48.1% 50.0%
9  LSU At-Large 64.2% 9.9% 54.3% 60.2%
9  Connecticut At-Large 53.3% 8.0% 45.3% 49.3%
9  Providence At-Large 49.2% 7.7% 41.5% 45.0%
10  Stanford At-Large 59.6% 11.8% 47.8% 54.2%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 48.3% 4.5% 43.8% 45.9%
10  Arizona At-Large 56.9% 9.6% 47.4% 52.4%
10  Syracuse At-Large 50.4% 5.5% 44.9% 47.5%
11  Arkansas At-Large 48.3% 5.7% 42.6% 45.2%
11  Colorado At-Large 47.9% 7.2% 40.8% 43.9%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 46.2% 6.4% 39.9% 42.6%
11  Marquette At-Large 45.8% 6.5% 39.3% 42.0%
11  Memphis At-Large 52.6% 18.0% 34.5% 42.1%
11  Dayton Auto 50.1% 19.0% 31.1% 38.4%
12  San Diego St. Auto 61.8% 35.2% 26.6% 41.0%
12  Northern Iowa Auto 45.6% 30.9% 14.7% 21.3%
12  Western Kentucky Auto 29.3% 21.6% 7.7% 9.8%
12  Furman Auto 36.2% 30.9% 5.4% 7.8%
13  Buffalo Auto 19.7% 17.2% 2.6% 3.1%
13  Georgia St. Auto 28.7% 27.5% 1.2% 1.7%
13  Vermont Auto 54.3% 53.3% 0.9% 2.0%
13  Murray St. Auto 33.1% 32.3% 0.8% 1.2%
14  New Mexico St. Auto 58.3% 58.1% 0.2% 0.5%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 41.4% 40.5% 0.9% 1.5%
14  UC Irvine Auto 34.3% 33.7% 0.6% 0.9%
14  Wright St. Auto 35.1% 34.5% 0.6% 1.0%
15  Montana Auto 24.4% 24.4% 0.1% 0.1%
15  Siena Auto 25.5% 25.1% 0.4% 0.5%
15  Hofstra Auto 18.9% 18.5% 0.4% 0.5%
15  Winthrop Auto 45.4% 45.2% 0.2% 0.4%
16  Colgate Auto 31.0% 30.9% 0.1% 0.1%
16  Stephen F. Austin Auto 36.4% 36.3% 0.2% 0.3%
16  Liberty Auto 32.4% 32.4% 0.1% 0.1%
16  St. Francis (PA) Auto 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 31.5% 31.5%
16  Texas Southern Auto 27.4% 27.4%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Kansas 86.0% 20.4% 65.6% 82.4%
West Virginia 81.6% 16.4% 65.2% 78.0%
Iowa 79.3% 12.9% 66.4% 76.2%
Michigan St. 78.9% 12.9% 66.0% 75.8%
Texas Tech 77.1% 13.3% 63.8% 73.6%
Florida St. 76.2% 12.3% 63.9% 72.9%
Tennessee 76.9% 16.3% 60.7% 72.4%
Creighton 77.7% 20.3% 57.4% 72.0%
Illinois 74.2% 11.5% 62.7% 70.8%
Texas 73.9% 12.6% 61.3% 70.1%
Michigan 72.8% 9.6% 63.2% 69.9%
Ohio St. 70.8% 9.6% 61.2% 67.7%
Florida 72.4% 15.1% 57.3% 67.5%
UCLA 71.7% 15.5% 56.2% 66.5%
North Carolina 69.9% 10.4% 59.5% 66.4%
Louisville 68.4% 8.3% 60.0% 65.5%
Arizona St. 70.9% 16.7% 54.2% 65.1%
LSU 64.2% 9.9% 54.3% 60.2%
Alabama 61.5% 9.7% 51.8% 57.3%
Indiana 60.1% 7.3% 52.9% 57.0%
Purdue 59.6% 6.2% 53.4% 56.9%
Stanford 59.6% 11.8% 47.8% 54.2%
Arizona 56.9% 9.6% 47.4% 52.4%
Maryland 51.9% 3.8% 48.1% 50.0%
Oklahoma 52.8% 6.4% 46.4% 49.6%
Connecticut 53.3% 8.0% 45.3% 49.3%
Syracuse 50.4% 5.5% 44.9% 47.5%
Miami (FL) 48.3% 4.5% 43.8% 45.9%
Arkansas 48.3% 5.7% 42.6% 45.2%
Providence 49.2% 7.7% 41.5% 45.0%
Minnesota 47.3% 4.2% 43.1% 45.0%
Rutgers 47.2% 4.7% 42.5% 44.6%
Colorado 47.9% 7.2% 40.8% 43.9%
Seton Hall 46.2% 6.4% 39.9% 42.6%
Memphis 52.6% 18.0% 34.5% 42.1%
Marquette 45.8% 6.5% 39.3% 42.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
USC 45.1% 6.6% 38.5% 41.2%
North Carolina St. 42.9% 3.9% 39.0% 40.6%
Clemson 40.9% 3.6% 37.2% 38.6%
Butler 42.0% 5.7% 36.2% 38.4%
Cincinnati 46.4% 13.6% 32.8% 38.0%
Richmond 49.3% 18.3% 31.0% 37.9%
Mississippi 40.4% 4.5% 35.9% 37.6%
Xavier 40.1% 4.8% 35.3% 37.0%
South Carolina 39.8% 5.1% 34.7% 36.5%
Virginia Tech 38.4% 3.1% 35.3% 36.4%
BYU 43.2% 12.8% 30.4% 34.9%
Georgia Tech 35.8% 2.5% 33.3% 34.1%
Missouri 36.9% 4.2% 32.7% 34.1%
Washington 36.6% 4.9% 31.7% 33.3%
Utah 35.6% 5.5% 30.2% 31.9%
Penn St. 32.1% 2.1% 30.0% 30.7%
Mississippi St. 31.6% 3.4% 28.2% 29.2%
Saint Louis 41.4% 17.2% 24.1% 29.2%
St. Mary's 32.1% 7.6% 24.5% 26.5%
SMU 34.0% 10.8% 23.2% 26.0%
St. John's 27.5% 3.1% 24.4% 25.2%
TCU 26.0% 2.2% 23.8% 24.3%
Notre Dame 25.5% 1.9% 23.6% 24.0%
Wichita St. 29.4% 8.5% 20.9% 22.8%
Texas A&M 23.8% 2.7% 21.1% 21.7%
Iowa St. 22.2% 2.2% 20.0% 20.5%
DePaul 20.3% 2.5% 17.8% 18.3%
Pittsburgh 18.6% 1.0% 17.6% 17.7%
Georgia 18.5% 1.5% 17.0% 17.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Georgetown 18.4% 2.0% 16.4% 16.7%
St. Bonaventure 23.5% 8.4% 15.1% 16.5%
Kansas St. 16.3% 1.1% 15.2% 15.4%
Utah St. 30.9% 18.5% 12.4% 15.3%
Northwestern 15.5% 0.9% 14.6% 14.8%
Duquesne 21.2% 7.5% 13.6% 14.8%
Davidson 22.8% 9.6% 13.2% 14.6%
San Francisco 18.9% 5.1% 13.8% 14.6%
Rhode Island 19.7% 6.9% 12.7% 13.7%
Virginia Commonwealth 17.7% 5.3% 12.4% 13.1%
Loyola Chicago 35.2% 25.6% 9.7% 13.0%
South Florida 15.8% 4.7% 11.1% 11.7%
California 12.8% 1.4% 11.4% 11.5%
Tulsa 15.5% 4.6% 10.9% 11.4%
Boise St. 23.0% 13.3% 9.7% 11.2%
Oregon St. 11.0% 1.0% 10.0% 10.1%
Wake Forest 9.7% 0.5% 9.2% 9.3%
Boston College 8.9% 0.5% 8.3% 8.4%
North Texas 23.5% 16.5% 7.0% 8.3%
UNC Greensboro 35.7% 30.1% 5.7% 8.1%
Pepperdine 11.3% 3.4% 7.9% 8.1%
Central Florida 11.0% 3.5% 7.5% 7.7%
Vanderbilt 7.6% 0.6% 7.0% 7.0%
Nevada 14.0% 7.7% 6.3% 6.9%
UNLV 15.0% 9.3% 5.8% 6.4%
Nebraska 6.4% 0.3% 6.1% 6.1%
Marshall 16.6% 11.5% 5.1% 5.8%
Washington St. 5.6% 0.6% 5.1% 5.1%
Colorado St. 12.6% 8.0% 4.5% 4.9%
Bradley 13.7% 9.9% 3.8% 4.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Massachusetts 6.3% 2.2% 4.1% 4.2%
George Mason 6.7% 2.8% 3.9% 4.0%
Indiana St. 13.4% 9.9% 3.5% 3.9%
Louisiana Tech 15.6% 12.4% 3.2% 3.6%
Old Dominion 13.5% 10.4% 3.1% 3.5%
Santa Clara 5.1% 2.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Temple 3.9% 1.4% 2.5% 2.5%
Pacific 3.7% 1.3% 2.3% 2.4%
Akron 15.4% 13.4% 1.9% 2.2%
East Carolina 3.1% 0.9% 2.2% 2.2%
Missouri St. 8.4% 6.6% 1.7% 1.9%
Loyola Marymount 2.8% 1.0% 1.8% 1.8%
Belmont 29.3% 28.3% 0.9% 1.3%
Fresno St. 4.9% 3.7% 1.3% 1.3%
Drake 6.9% 5.7% 1.2% 1.3%
UAB 8.2% 7.0% 1.2% 1.3%
Ball St. 12.8% 11.7% 1.1% 1.3%
Bowling Green 10.4% 9.3% 1.1% 1.2%
Valparaiso 5.8% 4.7% 1.1% 1.2%
La Salle 2.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2%
San Diego 2.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2%
Toledo 11.6% 10.6% 1.0% 1.1%
Ohio 12.2% 11.2% 1.0% 1.1%
East Tennessee St. 10.7% 9.7% 1.0% 1.1%
Southern Illinois 4.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.9%
Saint Joseph's 1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%
Wofford 10.1% 9.3% 0.7% 0.8%
UTEP 5.0% 4.2% 0.7% 0.8%
Charlotte 4.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.7%
Texas San Antonio 5.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Arkansas Little Rock 16.5% 16.0% 0.6% 0.7%
Chattanooga 8.7% 8.1% 0.6% 0.6%
New Mexico 2.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.6%
UC Santa Barbara 24.1% 23.6% 0.4% 0.5%
Eastern Michigan 7.7% 7.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Austin Peay 19.9% 19.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Wyoming 2.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.5%
Illinois St. 3.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.5%
Miami (OH) 5.6% 5.1% 0.4% 0.4%
George Washington 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Florida International 3.3% 2.9% 0.4% 0.4%
Kent St. 6.0% 5.7% 0.4% 0.4%
College of Charleston 16.0% 15.7% 0.3% 0.3%
Middle Tennessee 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Western Carolina 5.4% 5.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Mercer 5.3% 5.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Fordham 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Tulane 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Florida Atlantic 2.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Robert Morris 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Northeastern 15.3% 15.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Texas Arlington 11.9% 11.7% 0.2% 0.2%
Towson 12.5% 12.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Texas St. 15.3% 15.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Eastern Washington 23.8% 23.7% 0.1% 0.2%
Northern Kentucky 17.1% 17.0% 0.1% 0.2%
North Dakota St. 16.7% 16.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Louisiana 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Monmouth 17.6% 17.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Northern Illinois 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Oral Roberts 13.5% 13.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Hawaii 10.7% 10.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Coastal Carolina 8.0% 7.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Lipscomb 23.8% 23.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Central Michigan 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1%
South Alabama 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Appalachian St. 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1%
NJIT 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Delaware 9.7% 9.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Purdue Fort Wayne 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Evansville 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Davis 9.9% 9.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Drexel 10.6% 10.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Youngstown St. 11.2% 11.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Nebraska Omaha 9.6% 9.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Air Force 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Lafayette 11.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.1%
Iona 8.5% 8.4% 0.0% 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 7.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 13.4% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 8.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Cleveland St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 18.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 12.6% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0%
New Hampshire 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 9.2% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland Baltimore Co. 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
American 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Jacksonville St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis Brooklyn 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 5.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%