IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Vermont
America East
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.5	#96
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.0	#275
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.3	#114

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.2	#88

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.6%	2.6%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	3.8%	6.2%	0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	54.3%	59.5%	47.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.0%	3.5%	0.4%
Average Seed	12.3	11.7	13.3

.500 or above	98.3%	99.5%	96.6%
.500 or above in Conference	98.6%	99.4%	97.6%
Conference Champion	71.0%	76.5%	63.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	1.2%	1.2%	1.3%
First Round	53.8%	58.9%	46.6%
Second Round	11.9%	15.2%	7.4%
Sweet Sixteen	3.7%	5.0%	1.9%
Elite Eight	1.0%	1.4%	0.4%
Final Four	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Neutral) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 3	4 - 2	4 - 3
Quad 4	15 - 2	19 - 4

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 30, 2020	116	Buffalo	W	78-76	58%
Dec 02, 2020	222	Iona	W	75-65	81%
Dec 05, 2020	149	Siena	W	72-67	66%
Dec 19, 2020	279	@ Umass Lowell	W	79-70	79%
Dec 20, 2020	279	@ Umass Lowell	W	79-70	79%
Dec 27, 2020	217	NJIT	W	73-61	86%
Dec 28, 2020	217	NJIT	W	73-61	86%
Jan 02, 2021	264	Albany	W	76-61	90%
Jan 03, 2021	264	Albany	W	76-61	90%
Jan 09, 2021	329	@ Binghamton	W	78-63	90%
Jan 10, 2021	329	@ Binghamton	W	78-63	90%
Jan 16, 2021	328	Maine	W	75-54	96%
Jan 17, 2021	328	Maine	W	75-54	96%
Jan 23, 2021	267	@ Hartford	W	72-63	77%
Jan 24, 2021	267	@ Hartford	W	72-63	76%
Jan 30, 2021	224	Stony Brook	W	75-62	85%
Jan 31, 2021	224	Stony Brook	W	75-62	86%
Feb 18, 2021	205	New Hampshire	W	74-62	83%
Feb 19, 2021	205	New Hampshire	W	74-62	83%
Feb 27, 2021	202	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	70-65	66%
Feb 28, 2021	202	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	70-65	66%
Projected Record						17 - 4	13 - 3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected America East Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	1.3	5.2	12.0	18.8	20.3	13.4		71.0	1st
2nd										0.1	1.3	4.0	5.9	4.3	1.0				16.6	2nd
3rd									0.1	0.8	2.4	2.3	0.8	0.1					6.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.5	1.4	1.0	0.2							3.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1								1.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0									0.8	6th
7th				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0										0.4	7th
8th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0												0.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.0													0.1	9th

Total				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.8	1.5	2.7	4.9	7.8	11.9	16.4	19.8	20.3	13.4			Total

America East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	13.4		13.4
15-1	100.0%	20.3		19.8	0.4
14-2	94.9%	18.8		16.0	2.7	0.0
13-3	73.1%	12.0		7.7	3.8	0.4	0.0
12-4	44.0%	5.2		2.1	2.4	0.7	0.1
11-5	16.4%	1.3		0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	71.0%	71.0		59.4	9.9	1.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	13.4%		83.5%	78.2%	5.3%	8.5		0.1	0.2	0.3	1.0	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.7	1.0	0.9	1.4	1.5	1.0	0.1			2.2		24.4%
15-1	20.3%		70.7%	69.6%	1.0%	12.4							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.6	4.7	5.3	1.6	0.2	0.0	5.9		3.4%
14-2	19.8%		60.1%	60.0%	0.1%	13.2										0.0	0.0	0.2	2.3	5.4	3.4	0.6	0.0	7.9		0.3%
13-3	16.4%		48.9%	48.9%		13.7												0.0	0.5	2.7	3.3	1.4	0.1	8.4
12-4	11.9%		39.4%	39.4%		14.2													0.1	0.9	1.8	1.6	0.3	7.2
11-5	7.8%		30.1%	30.1%		14.8														0.1	0.6	1.2	0.5	5.5
10-6	4.9%		22.9%	22.9%		15.1														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	3.8
9-7	2.7%		15.2%	15.2%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.3	2.3
8-8	1.5%		13.4%	13.4%		15.9																0.0	0.2	1.3
7-9	0.8%		9.7%	9.7%		15.9																0.0	0.1	0.7
6-10	0.3%		3.7%	3.7%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
5-11	0.2%		4.7%	4.7%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
4-12	0.1%																							0.1
3-13	0.0%																							0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16

Total	100%		54.3%	53.3%	0.9%	12.3		0.1	0.2	0.3	1.0	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.7	1.2	1.6	3.2	9.1	15.5	11.1	5.6	1.8	45.7		2.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	5.3%	100.0%	5.9	1.3	4.7	5.5	17.5	19.2	19.0	10.2	6.0	8.7	2.8	2.8	1.8	0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.7%	50.2%	10.8					0.3		1.2	1.3	7.5	5.6	17.0	12.6	4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.4%	43.5%	11.4									2.3	5.8	14.7	14.7	6.0