Preseason Rankings
Buffalo
Mid-American
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#116
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace81.4#7
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#154
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 26.7% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.1% 5.7% 1.4%
Average Seed 12.0 11.4 12.8
.500 or above 71.9% 84.1% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 80.0% 86.6% 75.2%
Conference Champion 24.8% 32.5% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.4% 3.2%
First Four1.4% 2.0% 1.0%
First Round19.1% 25.6% 14.4%
Second Round4.6% 7.2% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.1% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Neutral) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 37 - 58 - 9
Quad 47 - 115 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 30, 2020 96   Vermont L 76-78 42%    
  Dec 01, 2020 222   Iona W 84-76 76%    
  Dec 06, 2020 146   @ Bowling Green L 83-84 48%    
  Dec 19, 2020 35   @ Syracuse L 75-86 17%    
  Dec 29, 2020 7   @ West Virginia L 73-88 9%    
  Jan 02, 2021 126   @ Akron L 80-82 43%    
  Jan 05, 2021 160   Eastern Michigan W 78-71 71%    
  Jan 09, 2021 130   Ball St. W 79-74 65%    
  Jan 12, 2021 238   @ Western Michigan W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 15, 2021 146   Bowling Green W 86-81 68%    
  Jan 19, 2021 172   Kent St. W 84-77 73%    
  Jan 23, 2021 189   @ Northern Illinois W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 26, 2021 207   Central Michigan W 93-83 80%    
  Jan 29, 2021 134   Ohio W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 02, 2021 130   @ Ball St. L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 06, 2021 179   Miami (OH) W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 09, 2021 238   Western Michigan W 83-72 82%    
  Feb 13, 2021 207   @ Central Michigan W 90-86 62%    
  Feb 16, 2021 160   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 20, 2021 137   Toledo W 83-78 66%    
  Feb 23, 2021 179   @ Miami (OH) W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 27, 2021 134   @ Ohio L 79-80 45%    
  Mar 02, 2021 126   Akron W 83-79 63%    
  Mar 05, 2021 172   Kent St. W 84-77 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.2 5.9 5.6 4.4 1.9 0.7 24.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.1 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.7 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.4 4.7 6.3 7.7 9.5 9.9 10.6 10.3 10.2 8.4 6.3 4.5 1.9 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
18-2 97.5% 4.4    4.1 0.3
17-3 88.9% 5.6    4.5 1.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 70.3% 5.9    3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 41.3% 4.2    1.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.3% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.8% 24.8 17.5 5.7 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 96.0% 68.2% 27.8% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.3%
19-1 1.9% 78.1% 49.0% 29.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 57.1%
18-2 4.5% 66.6% 50.8% 15.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 32.2%
17-3 6.3% 50.1% 40.9% 9.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 3.1 15.6%
16-4 8.4% 36.2% 31.8% 4.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.4 6.5%
15-5 10.2% 26.4% 25.1% 1.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.5 1.7%
14-6 10.3% 20.7% 20.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 8.1 0.2%
13-7 10.6% 12.9% 12.8% 0.1% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.2 0.1%
12-8 9.9% 11.0% 11.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.8
11-9 9.5% 6.1% 6.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.9
10-10 7.7% 4.1% 4.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.4
9-11 6.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.2
8-12 4.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.6
7-13 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.7% 17.2% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 4.3 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.4 80.3 3.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 44.3 14.8 27.9 13.1