Preseason Rankings
Toledo
Mid-American
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#137
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#185
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#192
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 15.7% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 2.0% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.7 12.2 13.4
.500 or above 66.2% 79.8% 56.0%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 77.3% 61.4%
Conference Champion 13.9% 18.8% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 2.5% 5.8%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
First Round11.2% 15.3% 8.2%
Second Round2.3% 3.7% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Neutral) - 42.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 10
Quad 49 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 117   Bradley L 71-73 43%    
  Nov 26, 2020 243   Oakland W 75-68 73%    
  Nov 27, 2020 58   @ Xavier L 67-78 16%    
  Dec 01, 2020 242   Cleveland St. W 77-67 80%    
  Dec 04, 2020 160   @ Eastern Michigan L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 12, 2020 275   UMKC W 74-63 84%    
  Dec 16, 2020 110   @ Marshall L 79-84 31%    
  Dec 19, 2020 155   Valparaiso W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 02, 2021 238   @ Western Michigan W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 05, 2021 172   @ Kent St. L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 09, 2021 134   Ohio W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 12, 2021 160   Eastern Michigan W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 16, 2021 126   @ Akron L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 19, 2021 207   Central Michigan W 85-77 74%    
  Jan 23, 2021 172   Kent St. W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 26, 2021 179   @ Miami (OH) L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 30, 2021 146   @ Bowling Green L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 02, 2021 126   Akron W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 06, 2021 130   @ Ball St. L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 09, 2021 189   @ Northern Illinois W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 13, 2021 146   Bowling Green W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 16, 2021 179   Miami (OH) W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 20, 2021 116   @ Buffalo L 78-83 34%    
  Feb 23, 2021 189   Northern Illinois W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 27, 2021 238   Western Michigan W 76-67 78%    
  Mar 02, 2021 207   @ Central Michigan W 82-80 56%    
  Mar 05, 2021 130   Ball St. W 72-69 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 3.4 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.1 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.3 3.0 0.8 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.4 5.5 7.2 8.7 9.5 10.0 10.9 9.8 9.0 7.1 5.5 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.2% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 97.3% 2.0    1.8 0.2
17-3 86.5% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
16-4 62.3% 3.4    2.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 38.6% 2.7    1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.8% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 9.0 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 90.1% 59.1% 31.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.7%
19-1 1.0% 79.3% 51.6% 27.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 57.3%
18-2 2.0% 57.1% 44.1% 12.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 23.1%
17-3 3.4% 45.5% 38.5% 7.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 11.5%
16-4 5.5% 31.7% 29.4% 2.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 3.2%
15-5 7.1% 20.3% 19.9% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.6 0.5%
14-6 9.0% 15.3% 15.3% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.6 0.1%
13-7 9.8% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 8.3 0.0%
12-8 10.9% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.9
11-9 10.0% 4.5% 4.5% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.6
10-10 9.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.3
9-11 8.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5
8-12 7.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.1
7-13 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.4
6-14 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.6% 10.6% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.5 0.5 88.4 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 2.3 40.9 36.4 2.3 18.2