IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.5	#155
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.3	#106
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.3	#164

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#162

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.8%	9.8%	4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.2%	2.8%	0.5%
Average Seed	12.3	11.6	13.0

.500 or above	42.1%	61.6%	33.5%
.500 or above in Conference	46.1%	57.6%	40.9%
Conference Champion	4.6%	7.4%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	10.7%	7.0%	12.3%

First Four	0.8%	1.3%	0.6%
First Round	5.5%	9.0%	3.9%
Second Round	1.3%	2.3%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 4	2 - 7
Quad 3	5 - 6	7 - 13
Quad 4	6 - 2	12 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 27, 2020	120	@ Vanderbilt	L	72-78	31%
Dec 01, 2020	216	@ Illinois-Chicago	W	73-72	55%
Dec 04, 2020	28	@ Purdue	L	61-76	9%
Dec 09, 2020	331	SIU Edwardsville	W	82-66	92%
Dec 12, 2020	207	@ Central Michigan	W	82-81	52%
Dec 16, 2020	160	Eastern Michigan	W	71-67	62%
Dec 19, 2020	137	@ Toledo	L	73-77	36%
Mar 08, 2021	64	@ Northern Iowa	L	66-77	17%
Mar 08, 2021	76	@ Loyola Chicago	L	64-74	20%
Mar 08, 2021	117	@ Bradley	L	69-75	31%
Mar 08, 2021	122	@ Indiana St.	L	69-75	32%
Mar 08, 2021	135	@ Missouri St.	L	71-75	36%
Mar 08, 2021	144	@ Drake	L	71-75	38%
Mar 08, 2021	168	Southern Illinois	W	69-65	64%
Mar 08, 2021	188	Illinois St.	W	75-70	67%
Mar 08, 2021	261	Evansville	W	76-67	78%
Mar 09, 2021	64	Northern Iowa	L	69-74	33%
Mar 09, 2021	76	Loyola Chicago	L	67-71	37%
Mar 09, 2021	117	Bradley	W	72-71	50%
Mar 09, 2021	122	Indiana St.	W	73-72	51%
Mar 09, 2021	135	Missouri St.	W	74-72	56%
Mar 09, 2021	144	Drake	W	74-72	58%
Mar 09, 2021	168	@ Southern Illinois	L	66-68	44%
Mar 09, 2021	188	@ Illinois St.	L	72-73	48%
Mar 09, 2021	261	@ Evansville	W	73-70	61%
Projected Record						12 - 13	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.1		4.6	1st
2nd											0.1	0.7	2.1	2.7	1.6	0.5	0.1				7.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.4	3.6	3.1	1.4	0.2	0.0					9.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.3	4.5	3.2	0.9	0.1							11.3	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.6	5.1	3.3	0.7	0.0								12.3	5th
6th						0.0	0.6	3.4	5.5	3.0	0.5	0.0									13.1	6th
7th					0.1	0.9	3.8	5.2	2.5	0.3	0.0										12.8	7th
8th				0.2	1.6	3.8	4.4	1.7	0.2	0.0											11.9	8th
9th		0.1	0.5	2.0	3.5	2.9	1.0	0.1													10.2	9th
10th	0.3	1.0	1.6	2.0	1.1	0.4	0.0														6.4	10th

Total	0.3	1.1	2.1	4.2	6.4	7.9	9.9	10.9	11.1	10.9	9.8	8.2	6.3	4.9	3.1	1.7	0.8	0.3	0.1			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
16-2	93.6%	0.8		0.6	0.1
15-3	71.3%	1.2		0.8	0.3	0.0
14-4	42.3%	1.3		0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	15.1%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.6%	4.6		2.5	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		98.6%	50.0%	48.6%	5.2			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0							0.0		97.2%
17-1	0.3%		86.8%	44.6%	42.2%	7.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		76.2%
16-2	0.8%		75.1%	38.7%	36.4%	10.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		59.3%
15-3	1.7%		48.9%	28.8%	20.0%	11.2							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.8		28.2%
14-4	3.1%		30.1%	21.6%	8.5%	12.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		2.2		10.9%
13-5	4.9%		18.3%	17.2%	1.1%	12.5											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	4.0		1.3%
12-6	6.3%		10.0%	9.6%	0.4%	13.2												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0		5.7		0.5%
11-7	8.2%		6.6%	6.6%		13.6												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.7
10-8	9.8%		4.6%	4.6%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	9.3
9-9	10.9%		2.6%	2.6%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	10.7
8-10	11.1%		1.8%	1.8%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.9
7-11	10.9%		0.8%	0.8%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.9
6-12	9.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
5-13	7.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
4-14	6.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
3-15	4.2%																							4.2
2-16	2.1%																							2.1
1-17	1.1%																							1.1
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		5.8%	4.7%	1.1%	12.3			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.3	1.2	0.7	0.5	0.4	94.2		1.2%