IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.9	#216
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.3	#107
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.0	#285

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.1	#164

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.7%	11.0%	6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.4	15.0

.500 or above	45.1%	64.8%	36.0%
.500 or above in Conference	41.5%	53.3%	36.1%
Conference Champion	6.4%	9.7%	4.8%
Last Place in Conference	11.1%	6.4%	13.3%

First Four	1.7%	1.6%	1.8%
First Round	7.0%	10.3%	5.4%
Second Round	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 8
Quad 4	8 - 5	12 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	189	@ Northern Illinois	L	64-69	32%
Dec 01, 2020	155	Valparaiso	L	72-73	45%
Dec 05, 2020	130	@ Ball St.	L	64-73	21%
Dec 19, 2020	243	Oakland	W	71-67	65%
Dec 20, 2020	243	Oakland	W	71-67	64%
Dec 26, 2020	272	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	71-72	48%
Dec 27, 2020	272	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	71-72	48%
Jan 01, 2021	245	Detroit Mercy	W	77-73	63%
Jan 02, 2021	245	Detroit Mercy	W	77-73	64%
Jan 08, 2021	227	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	69-72	41%
Jan 09, 2021	227	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	69-72	41%
Jan 15, 2021	212	Robert Morris	W	69-66	58%
Jan 16, 2021	212	Robert Morris	W	69-66	58%
Jan 22, 2021	199	@ Youngstown St.	L	69-74	35%
Jan 23, 2021	199	@ Youngstown St.	L	69-74	35%
Jan 29, 2021	167	@ Northern Kentucky	L	65-71	29%
Jan 30, 2021	167	@ Northern Kentucky	L	65-71	29%
Feb 05, 2021	121	Wright St.	L	74-78	38%
Feb 06, 2021	121	Wright St.	L	74-78	38%
Feb 12, 2021	295	@ IUPUI	W	77-76	53%
Feb 13, 2021	295	@ IUPUI	W	77-76	53%
Feb 19, 2021	240	Green Bay	W	83-79	62%
Feb 20, 2021	240	Green Bay	W	83-79	63%
Projected Record						11 - 12	8 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.5	1.4	1.9	1.5	0.8	0.2				6.4	1st
2nd										0.2	1.5	3.4	3.4	1.7	0.4	0.1					10.6	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.2	2.4	4.5	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.0						11.4	3rd
4th								0.2	2.9	5.7	2.9	0.6	0.0								12.3	4th
5th							0.2	2.5	5.9	3.2	0.5	0.0									12.2	5th
6th					0.0	0.1	2.2	5.2	3.4	0.4	0.0										11.2	6th
7th				0.0	0.2	1.7	5.0	3.3	0.5	0.0											10.8	7th
8th				0.2	1.7	4.2	3.1	0.5	0.0												9.7	8th
9th	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.8	3.4	2.4	0.4	0.0													8.6	9th
10th	0.2	1.0	1.8	2.2	1.2	0.3	0.0														6.6	10th

Total	0.2	1.0	2.2	4.2	6.6	8.7	11.0	11.7	12.8	11.8	9.5	7.7	5.7	3.8	2.0	0.9	0.2					Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-3	92.0%	0.8		0.7	0.1
14-4	76.6%	1.5		1.1	0.4	0.0
13-5	51.0%	1.9		1.0	0.8	0.1
12-6	24.8%	1.4		0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0
11-7	6.5%	0.5		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.4%	6.4		3.4	2.2	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.2%		56.9%	51.8%	5.1%	11.2					0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		10.5%
15-3	0.9%		49.4%	47.1%	2.3%	12.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.4		4.4%
14-4	2.0%		36.1%	35.2%	0.8%	13.4												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.3		1.3%
13-5	3.8%		27.5%	27.5%		14.0													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0	2.7
12-6	5.7%		19.8%	19.8%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.1	4.6
11-7	7.7%		14.3%	14.3%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.3	6.6
10-8	9.5%		11.1%	11.1%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	8.5
9-9	11.8%		7.0%	7.0%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	11.0
8-10	12.8%		5.3%	5.3%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	12.2
7-11	11.7%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																	0.3	11.4
6-12	11.0%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.2	10.8
5-13	8.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.6
4-14	6.6%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	6.5
3-15	4.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.2
2-16	2.2%																							2.2
1-17	1.0%																							1.0
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		7.7%	7.7%	0.0%	14.8					0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9	1.5	2.1	2.8	92.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%