Preseason Rankings
Purdue
Big Ten
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#28
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.8#329
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.1% 4.6% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 9.2% 10.2% 3.1%
Top 4 Seed 21.6% 23.7% 8.8%
Top 6 Seed 34.5% 37.4% 16.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.6% 63.5% 36.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.9% 60.9% 34.3%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 7.1
.500 or above 70.5% 74.8% 45.0%
.500 or above in Conference 60.8% 63.9% 42.6%
Conference Champion 7.9% 8.6% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.3% 8.5%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 3.8%
First Round57.6% 61.6% 34.4%
Second Round39.0% 41.9% 21.8%
Sweet Sixteen20.0% 21.8% 9.6%
Elite Eight9.9% 10.8% 4.2%
Final Four4.5% 4.9% 2.3%
Championship Game2.0% 2.3% 0.7%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.2%

Next Game: Liberty (Neutral) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 42 - 016 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 147   Liberty W 64-53 86%    
  Dec 01, 2020 243   Oakland W 75-55 96%    
  Dec 04, 2020 155   Valparaiso W 76-61 91%    
  Dec 08, 2020 43   @ Miami (FL) L 68-69 45%    
  Dec 12, 2020 122   Indiana St. W 73-61 86%    
  Dec 16, 2020 17   Ohio St. W 66-65 53%    
  Dec 19, 2020 70   Notre Dame W 71-67 65%    
  Dec 22, 2020 9   Iowa L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 25, 2020 39   Maryland W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 29, 2020 33   @ Rutgers L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 02, 2021 13   @ Illinois L 63-69 31%    
  Jan 05, 2021 113   Nebraska W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 08, 2021 10   @ Michigan St. L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 14, 2021 24   @ Indiana L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 17, 2021 62   Penn St. W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 22, 2021 19   Michigan W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 27, 2021 17   @ Ohio St. L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 30, 2021 37   Minnesota W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 02, 2021 39   @ Maryland L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 06, 2021 80   Northwestern W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 11, 2021 37   @ Minnesota L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 16, 2021 10   Michigan St. L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 20, 2021 113   @ Nebraska W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 26, 2021 62   @ Penn St. W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 02, 2021 8   Wisconsin L 62-63 49%    
  Mar 06, 2021 24   Indiana W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.6 1.1 0.1 6.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 12th
13th 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.3 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.4 4.1 5.1 7.3 8.4 9.6 10.3 10.0 10.3 8.9 7.2 5.8 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.2% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 79.8% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.0
16-4 52.7% 2.1    1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.5% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.4% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.0% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.4 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.8% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 3.1 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.2% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 4.2 0.2 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.9% 99.4% 10.3% 89.2% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 10.3% 97.6% 5.3% 92.3% 6.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.4%
11-9 10.0% 89.0% 2.4% 86.6% 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 88.7%
10-10 10.3% 66.2% 1.3% 64.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 3.5 65.7%
9-11 9.6% 29.9% 1.1% 28.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.7 29.1%
8-12 8.4% 8.3% 0.6% 7.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 7.7%
7-13 7.3% 1.7% 0.6% 1.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 1.1%
6-14 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 5.1
5-15 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 4.1
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 59.6% 6.2% 53.4% 6.1 4.1 5.0 6.4 6.0 6.4 6.5 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 40.4 56.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0