Preseason Rankings
Wisconsin
Big Ten
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#8
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.4#335
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.4% 0.7%
#1 Seed 12.8% 13.1% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 24.6% 25.1% 4.6%
Top 4 Seed 45.3% 46.1% 14.1%
Top 6 Seed 60.4% 61.2% 29.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.5% 82.3% 53.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.5% 79.3% 49.8%
Average Seed 4.7 4.6 6.5
.500 or above 88.3% 89.0% 60.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 81.9% 60.5%
Conference Champion 19.2% 19.5% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.0% 2.3%
First Four3.2% 3.1% 4.3%
First Round80.2% 80.9% 51.8%
Second Round63.1% 63.8% 35.4%
Sweet Sixteen38.4% 39.0% 18.1%
Elite Eight21.5% 21.8% 8.1%
Final Four11.2% 11.4% 4.5%
Championship Game5.7% 5.8% 2.0%
National Champion3.0% 3.1% 0.3%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 33 - 016 - 9
Quad 43 - 019 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 186   Eastern Illinois W 78-58 97%    
  Nov 27, 2020 338   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78-45 99.9%   
  Dec 01, 2020 240   Green Bay W 86-63 98%    
  Dec 04, 2020 45   @ Marquette W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 09, 2020 26   Louisville W 69-63 70%    
  Dec 16, 2020 64   Northern Iowa W 70-60 81%    
  Dec 21, 2020 113   Nebraska W 79-64 90%    
  Dec 25, 2020 10   @ Michigan St. L 67-70 40%    
  Dec 28, 2020 39   Maryland W 69-61 75%    
  Dec 31, 2020 37   Minnesota W 69-61 74%    
  Jan 03, 2021 62   @ Penn St. W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 07, 2021 24   Indiana W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 12, 2021 19   @ Michigan L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 15, 2021 33   @ Rutgers W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 23, 2021 17   Ohio St. W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 27, 2021 80   Northwestern W 71-59 84%    
  Jan 30, 2021 39   @ Maryland W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 02, 2021 62   Penn St. W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 06, 2021 13   @ Illinois L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 11, 2021 113   @ Nebraska W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 14, 2021 19   Michigan W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 18, 2021 9   Iowa W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 21, 2021 80   @ Northwestern W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 27, 2021 13   Illinois W 67-63 62%    
  Mar 02, 2021 28   @ Purdue W 63-62 51%    
  Mar 07, 2021 9   @ Iowa L 70-73 41%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.5 5.1 3.5 1.9 0.5 19.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.8 5.3 3.2 1.2 0.2 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.2 4.6 6.5 7.8 9.7 10.3 11.5 11.1 10.6 8.1 6.3 3.7 1.9 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.1
18-2 94.9% 3.5    3.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 81.1% 5.1    3.8 1.2 0.1
16-4 55.6% 4.5    2.3 1.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 26.2% 2.8    1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 12.6 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 58.6% 41.4% 1.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.9% 100.0% 50.6% 49.4% 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.7% 100.0% 40.8% 59.2% 1.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 100.0%
17-3 6.3% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.6 3.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.1% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 2.1 2.6 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.6% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.8 1.4 3.2 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.1% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.8 0.4 1.5 3.2 2.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.5% 99.9% 11.2% 88.7% 4.9 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 10.3% 98.7% 6.2% 92.6% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.6%
11-9 9.7% 92.9% 4.8% 88.2% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 92.6%
10-10 7.8% 72.5% 1.8% 70.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 72.0%
9-11 6.5% 38.7% 1.6% 37.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.0 37.7%
8-12 4.6% 11.6% 0.8% 10.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1 10.9%
7-13 3.2% 2.5% 0.3% 2.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 2.2%
6-14 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 2.2 0.4%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 81.5% 14.0% 67.5% 4.7 12.8 11.8 11.5 9.2 8.2 7.0 5.7 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 18.5 78.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0