Preseason Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#26
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.5#244
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.0% 6.1% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 12.7% 13.0% 2.1%
Top 4 Seed 27.2% 27.6% 8.4%
Top 6 Seed 41.0% 41.6% 12.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.4% 69.1% 34.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.5% 66.2% 32.7%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 7.3
.500 or above 78.3% 79.0% 43.9%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 72.9% 44.1%
Conference Champion 10.1% 10.3% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 2.0% 6.4%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 4.3%
First Round66.3% 67.0% 32.1%
Second Round46.0% 46.6% 18.0%
Sweet Sixteen24.2% 24.6% 6.9%
Elite Eight12.2% 12.4% 1.8%
Final Four5.8% 5.9% 1.4%
Championship Game2.7% 2.7% 0.9%
National Champion1.2% 1.2% 0.5%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 26 - 211 - 10
Quad 34 - 115 - 11
Quad 42 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 261   Evansville W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 27, 2020 44   Seton Hall W 77-71 69%    
  Nov 29, 2020 302   Prairie View W 84-60 99%    
  Dec 01, 2020 82   Western Kentucky W 78-69 80%    
  Dec 04, 2020 84   UNC Greensboro W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 09, 2020 8   @ Wisconsin L 63-69 30%    
  Dec 16, 2020 48   North Carolina St. W 77-71 71%    
  Dec 22, 2020 87   @ Pittsburgh W 70-66 63%    
  Dec 26, 2020 11   Kentucky W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 02, 2021 101   @ Boston College W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 05, 2021 56   Virginia Tech W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 09, 2021 63   Georgia Tech W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 13, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 16, 2021 43   @ Miami (FL) L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 18, 2021 16   Florida St. W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 23, 2021 5   Duke L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 30, 2021 101   Boston College W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 02, 2021 35   @ Syracuse L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 06, 2021 6   @ Virginia L 55-62 30%    
  Feb 09, 2021 87   Pittsburgh W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 13, 2021 56   @ Virginia Tech W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 16, 2021 35   Syracuse W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 20, 2021 23   @ North Carolina L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 23, 2021 70   Notre Dame W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 27, 2021 5   @ Duke L 73-80 29%    
  Mar 02, 2021 49   @ Clemson W 68-67 50%    
  Mar 06, 2021 6   Virginia L 58-59 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.6 2.7 1.1 0.1 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.9 0.9 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.1 0.1 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.7 4.6 6.3 8.4 9.7 10.6 11.1 10.1 9.7 8.0 6.0 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 93.7% 2.2    1.8 0.3
17-3 70.7% 2.8    1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 43.1% 2.6    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 15.0% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 6.1 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.3% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.9% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.8 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.0% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 2.5 1.2 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.0% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 3.5 0.5 1.5 2.4 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.7% 99.9% 12.4% 87.5% 4.6 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.1% 99.2% 8.2% 91.1% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 11.1% 95.5% 5.1% 90.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.2%
11-9 10.6% 83.6% 2.6% 81.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 83.1%
10-10 9.7% 56.3% 2.6% 53.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 55.1%
9-11 8.4% 24.3% 0.7% 23.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.4 23.8%
8-12 6.3% 7.7% 0.7% 7.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.8 7.0%
7-13 4.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.9%
6-14 3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 3.7 0.2%
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 68.4% 8.3% 60.0% 5.8 6.0 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.1 5.4 4.7 3.6 3.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 31.7 65.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0