Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.9#5
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.6#35
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.6% 4.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 16.6% 16.7% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 30.3% 30.5% 8.6%
Top 4 Seed 51.6% 51.9% 20.0%
Top 6 Seed 66.7% 67.0% 30.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.7% 89.0% 59.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.6% 85.9% 57.7%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 6.5
.500 or above 97.0% 97.2% 81.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 92.1% 77.1%
Conference Champion 29.9% 30.0% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 2.9%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 4.5%
First Round88.1% 88.4% 59.1%
Second Round70.3% 70.6% 40.2%
Sweet Sixteen44.6% 44.8% 20.8%
Elite Eight26.2% 26.3% 7.4%
Final Four14.9% 15.0% 4.9%
Championship Game8.3% 8.4% 0.6%
National Champion4.4% 4.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 6
Quad 26 - 113 - 7
Quad 34 - 017 - 7
Quad 45 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 247   Gardner-Webb W 87-62 99%    
  Nov 28, 2020 327   Coppin St. W 97-65 99.8%   
  Dec 01, 2020 10   Michigan St. W 81-77 66%    
  Dec 04, 2020 292   Bellarmine W 81-54 99%    
  Dec 06, 2020 215   Elon W 87-63 99%    
  Dec 08, 2020 13   Illinois W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 12, 2020 280   Charleston Southern W 89-62 99%    
  Dec 16, 2020 70   @ Notre Dame W 81-75 70%    
  Dec 29, 2020 87   Pittsburgh W 80-66 88%    
  Jan 02, 2021 16   @ Florida St. L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 05, 2021 101   Boston College W 86-71 90%    
  Jan 09, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 88-73 90%    
  Jan 12, 2021 56   @ Virginia Tech W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 19, 2021 87   @ Pittsburgh W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 23, 2021 26   @ Louisville W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 26, 2021 63   Georgia Tech W 83-72 82%    
  Jan 30, 2021 49   Clemson W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 01, 2021 43   @ Miami (FL) W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 06, 2021 23   North Carolina W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 09, 2021 70   Notre Dame W 84-72 83%    
  Feb 13, 2021 48   @ North Carolina St. W 82-78 63%    
  Feb 16, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest W 85-76 78%    
  Feb 20, 2021 6   Virginia W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 22, 2021 35   Syracuse W 83-74 76%    
  Feb 27, 2021 26   Louisville W 80-73 71%    
  Mar 02, 2021 63   @ Georgia Tech W 80-75 65%    
  Mar 06, 2021 23   @ North Carolina W 81-80 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.1 5.6 8.0 7.3 4.6 1.6 29.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.3 5.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.9 0.7 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.2 5.0 6.4 8.3 10.2 12.0 12.6 12.2 10.9 8.0 4.6 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 99.2% 4.6    4.4 0.2
18-2 91.2% 7.3    6.0 1.2 0.0
17-3 73.4% 8.0    5.3 2.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 45.8% 5.6    2.5 2.5 0.6 0.0
15-5 17.0% 2.1    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.9% 29.9 20.5 7.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 100.0% 57.5% 42.5% 1.1 1.4 0.2 100.0%
19-1 4.6% 100.0% 56.3% 43.7% 1.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 100.0%
18-2 8.0% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 1.5 4.8 2.6 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 10.9% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 2.0 4.1 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.2% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 2.7 2.0 3.5 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.6% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 3.9 0.5 1.6 3.3 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.0% 99.7% 18.2% 81.5% 5.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 10.2% 97.8% 13.6% 84.2% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.4%
12-8 8.3% 93.5% 7.8% 85.8% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.0%
11-9 6.4% 81.7% 3.7% 78.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 81.0%
10-10 5.0% 54.5% 1.8% 52.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 53.7%
9-11 3.2% 25.2% 1.1% 24.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 24.3%
8-12 2.2% 7.9% 1.8% 6.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 6.2%
7-13 1.2% 2.8% 1.3% 1.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.5%
6-14 0.7% 2.2% 2.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 88.7% 21.7% 67.0% 4.4 16.6 13.7 11.5 9.9 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.2 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.3 85.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 93.4 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 75.9 24.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 93.5 6.5