Preseason Rankings
Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#292
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#161
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-13.4#345
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 23.3% 48.1% 18.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.6% 61.7% 41.5%
Conference Champion 4.6% 8.8% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 48 - 710 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 158   @ Chattanooga L 58-69 15%    
  Dec 01, 2020 47   Dayton L 55-72 5%    
  Dec 04, 2020 5   @ Duke L 54-81 1%    
  Dec 06, 2020 326   @ Howard W 68-67 55%    
  Dec 09, 2020 158   Chattanooga L 61-66 34%    
  Dec 13, 2020 323   @ Morgan St. W 64-63 53%    
  Dec 15, 2020 179   @ Miami (OH) L 57-66 20%    
  Dec 19, 2020 193   Middle Tennessee L 63-65 41%    
  Dec 22, 2020 193   @ Middle Tennessee L 60-68 23%    
  Jan 07, 2021 170   Lipscomb L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 09, 2021 170   Lipscomb L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 14, 2021 241   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 57-62 32%    
  Jan 16, 2021 241   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 57-62 32%    
  Jan 21, 2021 250   Stetson W 59-58 54%    
  Jan 23, 2021 250   Stetson W 59-58 54%    
  Jan 29, 2021 342   @ Kennesaw St. W 63-57 69%    
  Jan 30, 2021 342   @ Kennesaw St. W 63-57 69%    
  Feb 04, 2021 297   Jacksonville W 62-59 61%    
  Feb 06, 2021 297   Jacksonville W 62-59 60%    
  Feb 12, 2021 218   @ North Florida L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 13, 2021 218   @ North Florida L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 18, 2021 277   North Alabama W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 20, 2021 277   North Alabama W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 26, 2021 147   @ Liberty L 49-60 17%    
  Feb 27, 2021 147   @ Liberty L 49-60 17%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 4.2 5.6 2.0 0.2 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.7 5.7 2.0 0.1 13.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 5.6 5.8 1.7 0.1 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.8 5.1 1.4 0.1 15.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.1 3.3 0.7 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 6.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.7 8.5 10.9 12.5 12.7 12.2 11.1 8.5 5.9 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
14-2 90.7% 0.8    0.6 0.2
13-3 68.5% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.0
12-4 36.3% 1.3    0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-5 11.7% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.3% 0.3
14-2 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-3 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-4 3.6% 1.4% 1.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
11-5 5.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 5.8
10-6 8.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.3
9-7 11.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.0
8-8 12.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.2
7-9 12.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-10 12.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.5
5-11 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.9
4-12 8.5% 8.5
3-13 5.7% 5.7
2-14 3.2% 3.2
1-15 1.4% 1.4
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%