Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#297
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.9#255
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#305
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#256
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 10.5% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 27.9% 60.6% 25.7%
.500 or above in Conference 41.8% 63.9% 40.3%
Conference Champion 5.4% 11.5% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four2.5% 2.7% 2.5%
First Round4.0% 8.9% 3.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 6.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 48 - 79 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 04, 2020 94   @ Georgia L 64-80 6%    
  Dec 08, 2020 258   Campbell W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 10, 2020 312   New Orleans W 75-71 66%    
  Dec 19, 2020 43   @ Miami (FL) L 60-81 3%    
  Dec 21, 2020 89   @ Kansas St. L 57-74 7%    
  Jan 01, 2021 342   @ Kennesaw St. W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 02, 2021 342   @ Kennesaw St. W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 14, 2021 218   North Florida L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 16, 2021 218   North Florida L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 22, 2021 277   @ North Alabama L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 23, 2021 277   @ North Alabama L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 28, 2021 147   Liberty L 57-63 32%    
  Jan 30, 2021 147   Liberty L 57-63 32%    
  Feb 04, 2021 292   @ Bellarmine L 59-62 39%    
  Feb 06, 2021 292   @ Bellarmine L 59-62 40%    
  Feb 11, 2021 170   Lipscomb L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 13, 2021 170   Lipscomb L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 18, 2021 241   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 63-69 32%    
  Feb 20, 2021 241   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 63-69 32%    
  Feb 25, 2021 250   Stetson W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 27, 2021 250   Stetson W 65-64 53%    
Projected Record 8 - 13 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 5.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 2.8 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.7 1.7 0.2 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.7 5.4 1.7 0.1 13.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.2 5.8 1.6 0.1 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 6.0 5.1 1.2 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.2 5.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.6 2.0 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 8.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.6 2.2 4.1 6.8 8.8 11.2 12.2 12.3 11.3 9.5 7.8 5.4 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
14-2 95.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
13-3 72.6% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1
12-4 39.7% 1.6    0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-5 10.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.5% 39.5% 39.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.0% 27.2% 27.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-3 2.2% 27.5% 27.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.6
12-4 4.0% 21.7% 21.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 3.1
11-5 5.4% 14.7% 14.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 4.6
10-6 7.8% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 7.1
9-7 9.5% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.0
8-8 11.3% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 10.8
7-9 12.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 12.0
6-10 12.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.0
5-11 11.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-12 8.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.8
3-13 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.8
2-14 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
1-15 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
0-16 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 3.6 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%