Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace56.4#347
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#240
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.4% 41.1% 31.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.5 14.7
.500 or above 87.6% 97.1% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 96.9% 90.8%
Conference Champion 41.8% 55.0% 39.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.0% 1.9% 5.5%
First Round30.4% 40.3% 28.7%
Second Round2.8% 6.3% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Neutral) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 414 - 317 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 28   Purdue L 53-64 14%    
  Nov 28, 2020 59   South Carolina L 62-70 22%    
  Nov 30, 2020 149   Siena W 63-62 51%    
  Dec 03, 2020 239   St. Francis (PA) W 69-60 78%    
  Dec 09, 2020 66   @ Missouri L 55-66 17%    
  Dec 15, 2020 347   South Carolina St. W 74-51 98%    
  Dec 22, 2020 334   Alcorn St. W 73-56 94%    
  Dec 31, 2020 170   @ Lipscomb L 63-64 45%    
  Jan 02, 2021 170   @ Lipscomb L 63-64 45%    
  Jan 08, 2021 241   Florida Gulf Coast W 64-55 78%    
  Jan 09, 2021 241   Florida Gulf Coast W 64-55 78%    
  Jan 15, 2021 250   @ Stetson W 60-57 62%    
  Jan 16, 2021 250   @ Stetson W 60-57 62%    
  Jan 22, 2021 342   Kennesaw St. W 71-50 96%    
  Jan 23, 2021 342   Kennesaw St. W 71-50 96%    
  Jan 28, 2021 297   @ Jacksonville W 63-57 68%    
  Jan 30, 2021 297   @ Jacksonville W 63-57 68%    
  Feb 05, 2021 218   North Florida W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 06, 2021 218   North Florida W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 12, 2021 277   @ North Alabama W 66-61 64%    
  Feb 13, 2021 277   @ North Alabama W 66-61 64%    
  Feb 26, 2021 292   Bellarmine W 60-49 83%    
  Feb 27, 2021 292   Bellarmine W 60-49 83%    
Projected Record 15 - 8 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 6.3 11.5 11.1 7.7 3.2 41.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.8 7.5 3.6 0.9 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 4.2 0.9 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 2.5 0.3 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.0 0.1 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.1 8.9 10.8 13.2 14.7 15.2 12.0 7.7 3.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
15-1 100.0% 7.7    7.5 0.2
14-2 92.8% 11.1    9.5 1.6 0.0
13-3 75.6% 11.5    7.6 3.6 0.2
12-4 42.6% 6.3    2.6 2.8 0.8 0.1
11-5 13.8% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 41.8% 41.8 30.9 9.0 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.2% 65.1% 64.0% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 3.2%
15-1 7.7% 53.9% 53.7% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.6 0.5%
14-2 12.0% 46.6% 46.6% 13.9 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 1.4 0.2 6.4
13-3 15.2% 41.7% 41.7% 14.5 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.0 8.8
12-4 14.7% 37.3% 37.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 1.8 9.2
11-5 13.2% 29.7% 29.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 9.3
10-6 10.8% 21.3% 21.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 8.5
9-7 8.9% 16.4% 16.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 7.4
8-8 6.1% 10.7% 10.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.4
7-9 4.1% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.8
6-10 2.3% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-11 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.5% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 32.4% 32.4% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 5.0 7.2 8.5 9.4 67.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.1 7.0 0.8 14.1 18.8 39.1 0.8 13.3 6.3