Preseason Rankings
Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#250
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.7#340
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#247
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#258
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 13.1% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 34.4% 55.4% 28.2%
.500 or above in Conference 55.2% 67.9% 51.5%
Conference Champion 9.2% 14.7% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four3.8% 3.4% 3.9%
First Round7.0% 11.5% 5.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 48 - 510 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 171   @ Florida International L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 04, 2020 43   @ Miami (FL) L 59-78 4%    
  Dec 06, 2020 22   @ Florida L 53-75 2%    
  Dec 08, 2020 97   @ South Florida L 55-69 11%    
  Dec 15, 2020 191   Florida Atlantic L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 01, 2021 218   North Florida W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 02, 2021 218   North Florida W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 08, 2021 277   @ North Alabama L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 09, 2021 277   @ North Alabama L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 15, 2021 147   Liberty L 57-60 38%    
  Jan 16, 2021 147   Liberty L 57-60 38%    
  Jan 21, 2021 292   @ Bellarmine L 58-59 46%    
  Jan 23, 2021 292   @ Bellarmine L 58-59 46%    
  Jan 29, 2021 170   Lipscomb L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 30, 2021 170   Lipscomb L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 04, 2021 241   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 06, 2021 241   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-66 39%    
  Feb 19, 2021 342   Kennesaw St. W 72-58 88%    
  Feb 20, 2021 342   Kennesaw St. W 72-58 87%    
  Feb 25, 2021 297   @ Jacksonville L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 27, 2021 297   @ Jacksonville L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 9 - 12 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.2 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.2 3.2 1.1 0.1 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.6 2.3 0.2 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.6 6.1 1.9 0.2 13.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.3 5.3 1.8 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.9 4.3 1.3 0.1 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.1 8.9 11.3 11.8 12.5 11.1 10.3 8.2 6.3 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
14-2 93.1% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
13-3 70.9% 2.6    1.6 0.9 0.1
12-4 40.6% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-5 10.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 43.6% 43.1% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9%
15-1 0.9% 38.2% 38.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-2 2.1% 33.3% 33.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.4
13-3 3.7% 26.8% 26.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 2.7
12-4 6.3% 23.0% 23.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 4.8
11-5 8.2% 17.8% 17.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 6.8
10-6 10.3% 12.3% 12.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 9.0
9-7 11.1% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 10.1
8-8 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 11.9
7-9 11.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 11.4
6-10 11.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 11.1
5-11 8.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.7
4-12 6.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.0
3-13 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-14 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 5.4 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%