Preseason Rankings
Florida
Southeastern
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#22
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.9#311
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.0% 7.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 14.4% 14.7% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 29.0% 29.6% 6.9%
Top 6 Seed 43.4% 44.2% 14.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.4% 73.2% 42.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.5% 68.4% 40.1%
Average Seed 5.7 5.7 7.6
.500 or above 85.4% 86.2% 59.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.0% 80.5% 60.9%
Conference Champion 18.8% 19.2% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.3% 4.3%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 4.5%
First Round71.0% 71.8% 40.0%
Second Round49.6% 50.4% 19.1%
Sweet Sixteen26.9% 27.4% 7.6%
Elite Eight14.0% 14.2% 3.1%
Final Four6.8% 7.0% 0.8%
Championship Game3.3% 3.4% 0.1%
National Champion1.6% 1.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Umass Lowell (Neutral) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 8
Quad 25 - 210 - 10
Quad 34 - 114 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 279   Umass Lowell W 84-64 97%    
  Nov 27, 2020 6   Virginia L 56-59 39%    
  Dec 02, 2020 29   @ Oklahoma L 70-71 45%    
  Dec 06, 2020 250   Stetson W 75-53 98%    
  Dec 12, 2020 16   @ Florida St. L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 16, 2020 218   North Florida W 85-64 96%    
  Dec 19, 2020 191   Florida Atlantic W 77-58 95%    
  Dec 22, 2020 249   James Madison W 86-64 97%    
  Dec 30, 2020 120   @ Vanderbilt W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 02, 2021 30   LSU W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 05, 2021 32   @ Alabama L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 09, 2021 11   Kentucky W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 12, 2021 61   Mississippi W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 16, 2021 72   @ Mississippi St. W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 19, 2021 20   Tennessee W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 23, 2021 94   @ Georgia W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 27, 2021 120   Vanderbilt W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 30, 2021 7   @ West Virginia L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 03, 2021 59   South Carolina W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 05, 2021 30   @ LSU L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 10, 2021 20   @ Tennessee L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 13, 2021 78   Texas A&M W 68-59 79%    
  Feb 16, 2021 46   @ Arkansas W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 20, 2021 94   Georgia W 77-66 82%    
  Feb 23, 2021 60   @ Auburn W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 27, 2021 11   @ Kentucky L 67-72 35%    
  Mar 03, 2021 66   Missouri W 71-63 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.2 5.1 4.7 2.4 0.6 18.8 1st
2nd 0.3 2.2 5.0 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.6 0.9 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 3.9 1.2 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.3 7.1 9.4 10.6 11.8 12.0 11.5 9.9 7.0 4.9 2.4 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.1
16-2 94.9% 4.7    4.0 0.7 0.0
15-3 72.5% 5.1    3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 42.2% 4.2    1.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.9% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.8% 18.8 12.2 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 63.2% 36.8% 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.4% 100.0% 53.7% 46.3% 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.9% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.8 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 2.5 1.7 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.9% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 3.7 0.7 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.5% 99.7% 22.3% 77.4% 5.1 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 12.0% 97.9% 13.8% 84.1% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.5%
11-7 11.8% 90.3% 9.3% 81.1% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 89.3%
10-8 10.6% 71.6% 6.1% 65.5% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 69.8%
9-9 9.4% 47.2% 4.1% 43.1% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9 45.0%
8-10 7.1% 20.3% 1.7% 18.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.6 18.9%
7-11 5.3% 5.5% 1.2% 4.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.3%
6-12 3.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.7%
5-13 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.4% 15.1% 57.3% 5.7 7.0 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.0 7.1 6.4 5.3 3.9 3.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 27.6 67.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0