Preseason Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace53.4#348
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+12.6#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.5% 4.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 16.6% 16.7% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 30.5% 30.6% 5.6%
Top 4 Seed 51.3% 51.4% 22.4%
Top 6 Seed 66.9% 67.0% 33.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.1% 88.2% 67.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.1% 85.2% 64.1%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 6.6
.500 or above 94.7% 94.7% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 91.2% 77.9%
Conference Champion 28.3% 28.3% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 2.4%
First Four2.2% 2.2% 5.3%
First Round87.0% 87.1% 61.9%
Second Round69.4% 69.5% 48.4%
Sweet Sixteen44.0% 44.1% 15.9%
Elite Eight25.9% 26.0% 5.6%
Final Four14.4% 14.5% 0.3%
Championship Game8.1% 8.1% 0.0%
National Champion4.4% 4.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Neutral) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 6
Quad 26 - 213 - 8
Quad 34 - 017 - 8
Quad 44 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 328   Maine W 70-41 99.7%   
  Nov 27, 2020 22   Florida W 59-56 61%    
  Dec 01, 2020 239   St. Francis (PA) W 74-50 99%    
  Dec 04, 2020 172   Kent St. W 70-50 97%    
  Dec 09, 2020 10   Michigan St. W 63-59 63%    
  Dec 12, 2020 254   William & Mary W 72-47 99%    
  Dec 16, 2020 103   @ Wake Forest W 66-57 78%    
  Dec 19, 2020 3   Villanova L 58-59 45%    
  Dec 29, 2020 70   @ Notre Dame W 63-57 68%    
  Jan 02, 2021 56   Virginia Tech W 61-51 81%    
  Jan 06, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 69-54 90%    
  Jan 09, 2021 101   @ Boston College W 65-56 77%    
  Jan 13, 2021 70   Notre Dame W 66-54 84%    
  Jan 16, 2021 49   @ Clemson W 58-54 62%    
  Jan 20, 2021 48   North Carolina St. W 66-56 79%    
  Jan 23, 2021 63   Georgia Tech W 64-54 81%    
  Jan 25, 2021 35   Syracuse W 64-56 76%    
  Jan 30, 2021 56   @ Virginia Tech W 58-54 63%    
  Feb 02, 2021 48   @ North Carolina St. W 63-59 62%    
  Feb 06, 2021 26   Louisville W 62-55 70%    
  Feb 09, 2021 63   @ Georgia Tech W 61-57 65%    
  Feb 13, 2021 23   North Carolina W 65-59 68%    
  Feb 15, 2021 16   @ Florida St. L 60-61 47%    
  Feb 20, 2021 5   @ Duke L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 24, 2021 87   Pittsburgh W 63-50 86%    
  Mar 01, 2021 43   Miami (FL) W 65-56 77%    
  Mar 06, 2021 26   @ Louisville W 59-58 52%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.4 7.3 7.0 4.0 1.6 28.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 3.1 6.0 5.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.1 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 4.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.5 4.9 7.1 8.4 10.1 11.8 12.8 12.2 10.3 7.9 4.1 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 98.5% 4.0    3.8 0.2
18-2 89.5% 7.0    5.7 1.4 0.0
17-3 70.5% 7.3    4.6 2.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 44.3% 5.4    2.7 2.1 0.6 0.0
15-5 17.7% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.3% 28.3 19.0 7.3 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 100.0% 59.8% 40.2% 1.1 1.5 0.2 100.0%
19-1 4.1% 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% 1.2 3.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 7.9% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 1.5 4.9 2.3 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 10.3% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.9 4.1 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.2% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.7 2.0 4.0 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.8% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 3.7 0.8 2.0 3.4 2.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.8% 99.8% 15.9% 83.9% 4.9 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 10.1% 97.9% 11.6% 86.3% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.7%
12-8 8.4% 93.2% 7.8% 85.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 92.7%
11-9 7.1% 80.7% 4.2% 76.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 79.9%
10-10 4.9% 57.8% 2.7% 55.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 56.7%
9-11 3.5% 26.6% 2.3% 24.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 24.9%
8-12 2.4% 9.2% 0.1% 9.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1 9.1%
7-13 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.1%
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 88.1% 20.2% 67.9% 4.4 16.6 13.9 11.8 9.1 8.1 7.5 5.9 4.8 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 11.9 85.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.9 9.1