IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Kentucky
Southeastern
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+15.4	#11
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.9	#210
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+8.4	#10

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.0	#18

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	3.8%	3.8%	0.0%
#1 Seed	14.4%	14.5%	2.5%
Top 2 Seed	27.5%	27.6%	5.5%
Top 4 Seed	46.0%	46.1%	19.3%
Top 6 Seed	61.3%	61.5%	32.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	83.8%	84.0%	57.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	79.5%	79.7%	53.3%
Average Seed	4.7	4.7	6.3

.500 or above	89.6%	89.7%	67.0%
.500 or above in Conference	87.1%	87.2%	70.6%
Conference Champion	28.6%	28.8%	9.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.7%	5.9%

First Four	2.9%	2.9%	3.9%
First Round	82.4%	82.6%	54.5%
Second Round	63.4%	63.6%	40.0%
Sweet Sixteen	38.1%	38.2%	21.5%
Elite Eight	20.8%	20.9%	12.1%
Final Four	11.1%	11.1%	4.8%
Championship Game	5.8%	5.8%	1.4%
National Champion	3.0%	3.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 4	3 - 4
Quad 1b	4 - 2	7 - 7
Quad 2	7 - 2	14 - 9
Quad 3	4 - 0	18 - 9
Quad 4	2 - 0	20 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	296	Morehead St.	W	84-58	99%
Nov 27, 2020	245	Detroit Mercy	W	88-65	99%
Nov 29, 2020	53	Richmond	W	78-69	78%
Dec 01, 2020	4	Kansas	L	70-72	44%
Dec 06, 2020	63	Georgia Tech	W	75-69	72%
Dec 12, 2020	70	Notre Dame	W	79-69	82%
Dec 19, 2020	27	UCLA	W	71-69	59%
Dec 26, 2020	26	@ Louisville	L	71-72	48%
Dec 29, 2020	59	South Carolina	W	81-72	79%
Jan 02, 2021	72	@ Mississippi St.	W	74-69	66%
Jan 05, 2021	120	Vanderbilt	W	81-66	90%
Jan 09, 2021	22	@ Florida	L	69-70	45%
Jan 12, 2021	32	Alabama	W	84-77	71%
Jan 16, 2021	60	@ Auburn	W	76-73	61%
Jan 20, 2021	94	@ Georgia	W	79-72	72%
Jan 23, 2021	30	LSU	W	81-75	71%
Jan 26, 2021	32	@ Alabama	W	81-80	52%
Jan 30, 2021	15	Texas	W	71-67	62%
Feb 02, 2021	66	@ Missouri	W	72-68	62%
Feb 06, 2021	20	Tennessee	W	71-67	64%
Feb 09, 2021	46	Arkansas	W	80-72	76%
Feb 13, 2021	60	Auburn	W	79-70	77%
Feb 17, 2021	120	@ Vanderbilt	W	78-69	77%
Feb 20, 2021	20	@ Tennessee	L	68-70	45%
Feb 23, 2021	78	Texas A&M	W	72-61	82%
Feb 27, 2021	22	Florida	W	72-67	65%
Mar 02, 2021	61	@ Mississippi	W	73-70	60%
Projected Record						19 - 8	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southeastern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.9	5.5	7.7	7.5	4.3	1.5		28.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.4	5.5	5.6	2.5	0.5	0.0			16.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.9	4.8	4.2	1.2	0.1					12.4	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	4.1	3.6	0.8	0.0	0.0					9.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	2.9	3.4	0.8	0.0							7.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.6	3.2	0.9	0.1								6.1	6th
7th								0.0	1.0	2.7	1.3	0.1									5.1	7th
8th							0.0	0.4	1.9	1.6	0.2	0.0									4.0	8th
9th						0.0	0.2	1.1	1.6	0.3	0.0										3.3	9th
10th						0.0	0.6	1.3	0.5	0.0											2.4	10th
11th					0.1	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1												1.8	11th
12th			0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0												1.2	12th
13th			0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1														0.8	13th
14th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0															0.4	14th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.1	2.1	3.4	5.2	6.9	8.8	10.7	11.9	12.4	12.2	10.3	8.0	4.3	1.5			Total

Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.5		1.5
17-1	100.0%	4.3		4.2	0.2
16-2	93.8%	7.5		6.4	1.1	0.0
15-3	74.2%	7.7		5.1	2.3	0.2	0.0
14-4	44.6%	5.5		2.4	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	15.1%	1.9		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	2.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	28.6%	28.6		20.0	6.6	1.6	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.5%		100.0%	57.3%	42.7%	1.2		1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0															100.0%
17-1	4.3%		100.0%	48.4%	51.6%	1.3		3.3	1.0	0.1	0.0	0.0														100.0%
16-2	8.0%		100.0%	43.8%	56.2%	1.6		4.6	2.6	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
15-3	10.3%		100.0%	37.8%	62.2%	2.2		3.4	3.8	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0											100.0%
14-4	12.2%		100.0%	30.4%	69.6%	3.1		1.6	3.3	3.2	2.2	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.0								100.0%
13-5	12.4%		99.9%	23.0%	76.9%	4.2		0.4	1.7	2.6	2.7	2.2	1.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.9%
12-6	11.9%		98.5%	16.9%	81.6%	5.8		0.0	0.4	1.1	1.7	2.3	2.3	1.7	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.2		98.1%
11-7	10.7%		94.7%	11.6%	83.1%	6.9		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.9	1.4	1.9	1.8	1.5	0.9	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.6		94.0%
10-8	8.8%		79.7%	6.5%	73.2%	8.4				0.1	0.1	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.2	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.8		78.3%
9-9	6.9%		60.5%	4.8%	55.7%	9.6					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0		2.7		58.5%
8-10	5.2%		30.9%	2.5%	28.4%	10.7				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0			3.6		29.2%
7-11	3.4%		9.0%	1.1%	8.0%	11.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		3.1		8.1%
6-12	2.1%		4.0%	1.6%	2.4%	12.5										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	2.0		2.4%
5-13	1.1%																							1.1
4-14	0.6%																							0.6
3-15	0.4%																							0.4
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		83.8%	21.3%	62.5%	4.7		14.4	13.0	9.8	8.7	8.1	7.3	6.1	5.0	3.3	2.8	2.7	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	16.2		79.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	1.1	94.0	6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	95.5	4.5