IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Kansas
Big 12
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+17.0	#4
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.4	#225
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+7.9	#14

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+9.1	#2

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	5.9%	9.5%	3.3%
#1 Seed	20.1%	29.9%	13.1%
Top 2 Seed	35.5%	49.1%	25.7%
Top 4 Seed	56.2%	71.1%	45.5%
Top 6 Seed	70.0%	83.0%	60.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	86.0%	94.2%	80.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	82.4%	92.2%	76.0%
Average Seed	4.0	3.3	4.6

.500 or above	88.5%	95.8%	83.2%
.500 or above in Conference	84.9%	90.6%	80.7%
Conference Champion	25.9%	32.7%	21.0%
Last Place in Conference	1.4%	0.4%	2.1%

First Four	3.0%	1.9%	3.8%
First Round	84.8%	93.5%	78.5%
Second Round	71.2%	82.0%	63.4%
Sweet Sixteen	46.6%	56.8%	39.3%
Elite Eight	27.5%	35.2%	22.0%
Final Four	15.8%	21.4%	11.7%
Championship Game	8.6%	12.3%	5.9%
National Champion	4.7%	6.9%	3.1%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Neutral) - 42.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 6	4 - 6
Quad 1b	4 - 2	8 - 8
Quad 2	5 - 1	13 - 9
Quad 3	3 - 0	16 - 9
Quad 4	3 - 0	19 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	1	Gonzaga	L	76-78	42%
Nov 27, 2020	174	Saint Joseph's	W	85-67	95%
Dec 01, 2020	11	Kentucky	W	72-70	56%
Dec 05, 2020	165	North Dakota St.	W	79-59	97%
Dec 08, 2020	12	Creighton	W	76-71	66%
Dec 11, 2020	196	Nebraska Omaha	W	85-63	97%
Dec 13, 2020	340	Tarleton St.	W	89-54	99.9%
Dec 17, 2020	14	@ Texas Tech	L	69-70	47%
Dec 22, 2020	7	West Virginia	W	74-70	65%
Jan 02, 2021	15	Texas	W	70-65	68%
Jan 05, 2021	69	@ TCU	W	69-63	69%
Jan 09, 2021	29	Oklahoma	W	76-68	75%
Jan 12, 2021	42	@ Oklahoma St.	W	72-69	61%
Jan 16, 2021	71	Iowa St.	W	81-69	85%
Jan 18, 2021	2	@ Baylor	L	67-71	37%
Jan 23, 2021	29	@ Oklahoma	W	73-71	57%
Jan 26, 2021	69	TCU	W	72-60	84%
Jan 30, 2021	20	@ Tennessee	L	67-68	50%
Feb 02, 2021	89	Kansas St.	W	74-60	88%
Feb 06, 2021	7	@ West Virginia	L	71-73	44%
Feb 08, 2021	42	Oklahoma St.	W	75-66	79%
Feb 13, 2021	71	@ Iowa St.	W	78-72	70%
Feb 16, 2021	89	@ Kansas St.	W	71-63	74%
Feb 20, 2021	14	Texas Tech	W	72-67	67%
Feb 22, 2021	15	@ Texas	L	67-68	48%
Feb 27, 2021	2	Baylor	W	70-68	56%
Projected Record						18 - 8	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.6	2.9	5.4	7.1	6.0	3.0	0.8		25.9	1st
2nd											0.1	1.3	4.6	6.5	5.2	2.0	0.3				20.0	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.6	4.9	5.8	2.8	0.5	0.0					15.8	3rd
4th									0.2	1.7	4.7	4.4	1.7	0.1	0.0						12.7	4th
5th								0.2	1.3	3.7	3.1	0.7	0.1								9.1	5th
6th							0.1	1.0	2.7	2.2	0.5	0.0									6.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.9	2.0	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0									4.7	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.7	0.2												2.9	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1													1.7	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0														0.7	10th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.6	2.4	4.1	5.7	7.9	10.0	11.3	12.8	12.3	11.2	9.2	6.3	3.0	0.8			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	100.0%	3.0		3.0	0.0
16-2	95.1%	6.0		5.3	0.7	0.0
15-3	77.5%	7.1		5.3	1.7	0.1
14-4	48.6%	5.4		2.6	2.3	0.5	0.0
13-5	23.3%	2.9		0.9	1.3	0.6	0.1
12-6	5.0%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1		0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	25.9%	25.9		17.9	6.3	1.5	0.1		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		100.0%	66.9%	33.1%	1.1		0.7	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	3.0%		100.0%	55.4%	44.6%	1.1		2.6	0.4	0.0																100.0%
16-2	6.3%		100.0%	47.1%	52.9%	1.3		4.8	1.4	0.1		0.0														100.0%
15-3	9.2%		100.0%	37.7%	62.3%	1.5		5.5	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0													100.0%
14-4	11.2%		100.0%	29.8%	70.2%	2.0		3.9	4.4	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0											100.0%
13-5	12.3%		100.0%	25.0%	75.0%	2.8		2.0	3.9	3.3	1.9	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0									100.0%
12-6	12.8%		99.8%	16.4%	83.4%	4.0		0.6	1.8	3.4	2.7	2.1	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0							0.0		99.8%
11-7	11.3%		99.5%	12.0%	87.5%	5.2		0.1	0.5	1.6	2.3	2.5	1.7	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.1		99.5%
10-8	10.0%		94.1%	9.8%	84.3%	6.8		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.6	1.6	1.3	1.1	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.6		93.5%
9-9	7.9%		78.5%	6.8%	71.7%	8.4			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0		1.7		76.9%
8-10	5.7%		47.7%	4.1%	43.6%	10.2				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.0		45.4%
7-11	4.1%		17.9%	2.7%	15.3%	11.5							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3		15.7%
6-12	2.4%		2.6%	0.6%	1.9%	11.7											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		2.4		2.0%
5-13	1.6%		0.5%	0.5%		15.0																0.0		1.6
4-14	0.8%																							0.8
3-15	0.4%																							0.4
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%		21.6%	21.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.0
0-18

Total	100%		86.0%	20.4%	65.6%	4.0		20.1	15.4	11.7	9.0	7.9	5.9	4.2	3.1	2.3	1.8	1.7	1.9	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	14.0		82.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	1.1	92.8	7.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	86.2	13.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0