Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.3#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.7#32
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+12.3#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.0% 8.2% 2.9%
#1 Seed 25.3% 32.7% 14.9%
Top 2 Seed 43.6% 54.3% 28.9%
Top 4 Seed 63.2% 74.0% 48.4%
Top 6 Seed 75.0% 83.8% 62.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.8% 98.3% 92.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.7% 94.4% 80.7%
Average Seed 4.0 3.3 4.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 81.7% 85.8% 76.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.4%
First Round95.5% 98.2% 91.7%
Second Round81.1% 87.5% 72.1%
Sweet Sixteen56.3% 64.2% 45.5%
Elite Eight37.1% 44.1% 27.3%
Final Four23.7% 28.4% 17.1%
Championship Game14.5% 18.1% 9.6%
National Champion8.8% 11.2% 5.4%

Next Game: Kansas (Neutral) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 3
Quad 25 - 19 - 3
Quad 38 - 017 - 4
Quad 49 - 026 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 4   Kansas W 78-76 58%    
  Nov 27, 2020 60   Auburn W 86-76 82%    
  Dec 02, 2020 20   Tennessee W 77-72 68%    
  Dec 05, 2020 2   Baylor W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 08, 2020 340   Tarleton St. W 98-61 100.0%   
  Dec 10, 2020 262   Southern W 90-62 99%    
  Dec 12, 2020 266   Northern Arizona W 91-63 99%    
  Dec 14, 2020 322   Idaho W 95-62 99.7%   
  Dec 19, 2020 9   Iowa W 87-83 62%    
  Dec 21, 2020 283   Northwestern St. W 99-70 99%    
  Dec 29, 2020 337   Dixie St. W 88-51 99.9%   
  Jan 02, 2021 91   San Francisco W 87-71 92%    
  Jan 07, 2021 125   Santa Clara W 93-73 96%    
  Jan 09, 2021 263   @ Portland W 90-68 97%    
  Jan 14, 2021 108   Pepperdine W 94-76 93%    
  Jan 16, 2021 74   @ St. Mary's W 79-70 76%    
  Jan 23, 2021 138   Pacific W 84-63 96%    
  Jan 28, 2021 159   @ San Diego W 88-72 92%    
  Jan 30, 2021 108   @ Pepperdine W 91-79 84%    
  Feb 04, 2021 154   Loyola Marymount W 84-62 97%    
  Feb 06, 2021 54   BYU W 89-76 85%    
  Feb 11, 2021 125   @ Santa Clara W 90-76 87%    
  Feb 13, 2021 91   @ San Francisco W 84-74 81%    
  Feb 18, 2021 74   St. Mary's W 82-67 88%    
  Feb 20, 2021 159   San Diego W 91-69 96%    
  Feb 25, 2021 138   @ Pacific W 81-66 89%    
  Feb 27, 2021 54   @ BYU W 86-79 71%    
Projected Record 23 - 4 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.4 8.8 18.7 28.0 23.5 81.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 4.2 2.0 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.8 7.5 13.2 20.7 28.0 23.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 23.5    23.5
15-1 100.0% 28.0    26.9 1.1
14-2 90.4% 18.7    15.2 3.4 0.0
13-3 67.0% 8.8    5.0 3.3 0.5
12-4 32.0% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.0
11-5 7.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 81.7% 81.7 71.5 9.1 1.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 23.5% 100.0% 84.1% 15.9% 1.5 14.7 6.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 28.0% 99.8% 74.3% 25.5% 2.5 9.1 8.4 4.4 3.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-2 20.7% 99.2% 64.3% 34.9% 4.3 1.4 3.1 3.5 4.1 3.2 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.7%
13-3 13.2% 96.8% 51.1% 45.8% 6.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.4 93.5%
12-4 7.5% 89.5% 41.1% 48.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.8 82.2%
11-5 3.8% 75.9% 35.1% 40.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 62.9%
10-6 1.9% 52.6% 24.0% 28.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 37.6%
9-7 0.9% 38.0% 24.3% 13.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 18.1%
8-8 0.3% 17.2% 12.1% 5.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.8%
7-9 0.1% 13.6% 0.8% 12.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.9%
6-10 0.1% 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 95.8% 65.8% 30.0% 4.0 25.3 18.3 10.1 9.5 6.8 5.0 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 87.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 100.0% 1.2 78.9 19.4 1.6 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.4 60.6 35.4 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 63.9 35.2 0.9