Preseason Rankings
BYU
West Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#54
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#102
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 5.9% 6.0% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 10.5% 10.7% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.2% 43.7% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.9% 35.3% 12.8%
Average Seed 8.6 8.6 9.8
.500 or above 89.1% 89.5% 67.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 87.1% 74.4%
Conference Champion 13.7% 13.9% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.8% 5.0%
First Four5.7% 5.7% 3.1%
First Round40.6% 41.1% 17.4%
Second Round21.4% 21.7% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 8.5% 3.3%
Elite Eight3.7% 3.7% 1.0%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.9%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 23 - 24 - 6
Quad 36 - 210 - 8
Quad 46 - 016 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 312   New Orleans W 90-68 98%    
  Nov 28, 2020 291   Utah Valley W 86-66 97%    
  Dec 01, 2020 57   USC W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 12, 2020 67   Utah W 77-73 65%    
  Dec 18, 2020 36   @ San Diego St. L 69-73 34%    
  Dec 23, 2020 256   Weber St. W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 31, 2020 108   @ Pepperdine W 82-80 58%    
  Jan 02, 2021 159   @ San Diego W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 07, 2021 138   Pacific W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 14, 2021 74   @ St. Mary's L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 16, 2021 91   @ San Francisco W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 21, 2021 263   Portland W 85-66 94%    
  Jan 23, 2021 108   Pepperdine W 85-77 75%    
  Jan 30, 2021 91   San Francisco W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 04, 2021 263   @ Portland W 82-69 86%    
  Feb 06, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 76-89 15%    
  Feb 11, 2021 74   St. Mary's W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 13, 2021 159   San Diego W 83-70 85%    
  Feb 18, 2021 138   @ Pacific W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 154   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 25, 2021 125   Santa Clara W 85-75 80%    
  Feb 27, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 79-86 29%    
Projected Record 15 - 7 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 4.6 3.6 0.8 13.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 7.6 11.2 8.4 3.1 32.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.8 7.4 6.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.7 3.6 0.8 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.5 0.3 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.5 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.7 8.3 11.3 13.5 14.9 14.8 12.0 7.7 3.6 0.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
15-1 100.0% 3.6    2.9 0.7
14-2 59.6% 4.6    2.7 1.9 0.0
13-3 28.4% 3.4    1.3 1.7 0.4
12-4 7.6% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
11-5 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 7.9 4.9 0.8 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.8% 100.0% 61.9% 38.1% 2.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 3.6% 99.9% 38.9% 61.1% 4.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-2 7.7% 96.7% 30.4% 66.3% 6.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.2%
13-3 12.0% 88.7% 23.1% 65.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.4 85.2%
12-4 14.8% 66.2% 16.0% 50.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.0 59.7%
11-5 14.9% 42.4% 10.9% 31.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.6 35.4%
10-6 13.5% 22.5% 7.4% 15.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 10.4 16.3%
9-7 11.3% 8.8% 3.7% 5.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.3 5.3%
8-8 8.3% 4.7% 2.7% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9 2.0%
7-9 5.7% 2.6% 2.5% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.2%
6-10 3.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
5-11 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
4-12 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 1.0
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 43.2% 12.8% 30.4% 8.6 0.8 1.4 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.6 5.5 6.5 6.9 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 56.8 34.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 50.9 40.0 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 38.2 58.8 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 65.5 3.4 3.4 27.6