Preseason Rankings
USC
Pac-12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#57
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.7#125
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 4.2% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 10.1% 10.4% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 17.4% 17.9% 4.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.1% 46.1% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.2% 42.2% 16.4%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 8.3
.500 or above 66.8% 68.1% 32.2%
.500 or above in Conference 57.4% 58.3% 33.1%
Conference Champion 8.2% 8.4% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 5.0% 14.4%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 3.0%
First Round42.9% 43.9% 16.5%
Second Round25.2% 25.8% 8.2%
Sweet Sixteen10.8% 11.1% 3.1%
Elite Eight4.9% 5.0% 1.7%
Final Four2.1% 2.1% 0.5%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 25 - 37 - 10
Quad 35 - 112 - 12
Quad 43 - 015 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 271   California Baptist W 85-66 96%    
  Nov 27, 2020 140   Montana W 77-66 85%    
  Dec 01, 2020 54   BYU L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 13, 2020 31   Stanford W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 16, 2020 91   San Francisco W 77-70 72%    
  Dec 20, 2020 115   @ Oregon St. W 72-69 60%    
  Dec 22, 2020 315   Cal Poly W 84-62 97%    
  Mar 08, 2021 50   Colorado W 73-70 59%    
  Mar 08, 2021 67   Utah W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 08, 2021 38   @ Arizona L 71-76 35%    
  Mar 08, 2021 25   @ Arizona St. L 76-83 27%    
  Mar 08, 2021 68   Washington W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   Washington St. W 81-70 81%    
  Mar 08, 2021 107   @ California W 70-68 57%    
  Mar 08, 2021 31   @ Stanford L 68-73 33%    
  Mar 08, 2021 21   Oregon L 70-71 45%    
  Mar 08, 2021 115   Oregon St. W 75-66 76%    
  Mar 08, 2021 27   UCLA L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 68   @ Washington L 72-74 44%    
  Mar 09, 2021 129   @ Washington St. W 78-73 64%    
  Mar 09, 2021 38   Arizona W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 09, 2021 25   Arizona St. L 79-80 47%    
  Mar 09, 2021 50   @ Colorado L 70-73 39%    
  Mar 09, 2021 67   @ Utah L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 09, 2021 27   @ UCLA L 67-74 30%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 2.9 0.9 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.5 5.9 7.8 8.5 9.9 10.4 9.4 9.4 8.1 6.5 5.2 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.3% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 92.7% 1.2    1.0 0.2
17-3 84.4% 2.1    1.6 0.5 0.0
16-4 57.7% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.4% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 5.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 65.0% 35.0% 1.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 49.3% 50.7% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.0% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 3.7 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.2% 99.8% 15.9% 83.9% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 6.5% 99.4% 15.1% 84.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 8.1% 94.3% 10.3% 84.0% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.7%
12-8 9.4% 81.5% 6.5% 74.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 1.7 80.2%
11-9 9.4% 59.9% 4.2% 55.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 58.1%
10-10 10.4% 31.7% 2.2% 29.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.1 30.2%
9-11 9.9% 6.2% 0.9% 5.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.3 5.4%
8-12 8.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.3%
7-13 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
6-14 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
5-15 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.5
4-16 2.9% 2.9
3-17 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 45.1% 6.6% 38.5% 7.3 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 54.9 41.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 45.9 54.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.0 40.0