Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#38
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.8#121
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
#1 Seed 2.8% 2.8% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 6.4% 6.5% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 14.0% 14.3% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 22.7% 23.2% 5.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.9% 57.7% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.4% 53.2% 26.2%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.6
.500 or above 84.9% 85.6% 60.5%
.500 or above in Conference 65.8% 66.5% 43.6%
Conference Champion 10.9% 11.1% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 3.2% 7.3%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 2.6%
First Round54.7% 55.5% 27.8%
Second Round33.2% 33.8% 14.3%
Sweet Sixteen15.0% 15.4% 3.9%
Elite Eight7.0% 7.2% 1.6%
Final Four3.1% 3.1% 0.1%
Championship Game1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 7
Quad 24 - 38 - 9
Quad 35 - 113 - 10
Quad 46 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 266   Northern Arizona W 82-62 97%    
  Nov 27, 2020 316   Grambling St. W 83-59 99%    
  Nov 29, 2020 161   UTEP W 77-63 90%    
  Dec 02, 2020 50   Colorado W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 05, 2020 166   Northern Colorado W 76-62 90%    
  Dec 09, 2020 214   Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-59 95%    
  Dec 16, 2020 271   California Baptist W 86-66 96%    
  Dec 19, 2020 31   @ Stanford L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 22, 2020 140   Montana W 79-66 87%    
  Mar 08, 2021 68   @ Washington L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   @ Washington St. W 79-73 70%    
  Mar 08, 2021 27   UCLA W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 08, 2021 57   USC W 76-71 65%    
  Mar 08, 2021 21   @ Oregon L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 08, 2021 115   @ Oregon St. W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 08, 2021 25   @ Arizona St. L 77-82 33%    
  Mar 08, 2021 107   California W 74-64 78%    
  Mar 08, 2021 31   Stanford W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 08, 2021 50   @ Colorado L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 08, 2021 67   @ Utah L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 21   Oregon W 72-71 50%    
  Mar 09, 2021 115   Oregon St. W 76-66 79%    
  Mar 09, 2021 27   @ UCLA L 68-73 34%    
  Mar 09, 2021 57   @ USC L 73-74 45%    
  Mar 09, 2021 68   Washington W 77-71 67%    
  Mar 09, 2021 129   Washington St. W 82-70 83%    
  Mar 09, 2021 25   Arizona St. W 80-79 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.2 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.5 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 3.2 0.7 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 2.8 0.6 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.2 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.7 9.3 10.3 10.1 10.2 9.7 7.8 6.4 5.2 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 95.1% 1.8    1.6 0.2
17-3 82.2% 2.7    2.1 0.6 0.0
16-4 53.0% 2.7    1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 27.6% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 8.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 7.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 60.4% 39.6% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 47.0% 53.0% 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.3% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 2.4 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.2% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 3.6 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.4% 99.6% 22.4% 77.3% 5.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 7.8% 99.3% 18.0% 81.3% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
13-7 9.7% 96.3% 11.1% 85.2% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.9%
12-8 10.2% 89.3% 6.9% 82.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 88.5%
11-9 10.1% 68.5% 4.8% 63.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.2 66.9%
10-10 10.3% 43.3% 1.9% 41.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.8 42.2%
9-11 9.3% 13.5% 2.1% 11.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.0 11.7%
8-12 7.7% 3.6% 1.3% 2.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2.3%
7-13 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0%
6-14 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 4.5
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 56.9% 9.6% 47.4% 7.1 2.8 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.2 5.5 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 3.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 43.1 52.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 68.9 31.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.6 13.4