Preseason Rankings
Pac-12
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
21 Oregon 73.2%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 7 13 - 7 +13.9      +8.6 8 +5.3 47 62.8 316 0.0 1 0.0 1
25 Arizona St. 70.9%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 8 13 - 7 +13.3      +8.3 11 +5.0 56 79.4 15 0.0 1 0.0 1
27 UCLA 71.7%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 8 +13.0      +7.6 17 +5.4 46 62.8 313 0.0 1 0.0 1
31 Stanford 59.6%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 9 12 - 8 +11.8      +4.3 65 +7.6 9 69.0 174 0.0 1 0.0 1
38 Arizona 56.9%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 9 +11.0      +5.2 51 +5.8 35 70.8 121 0.0 1 0.0 1
50 Colorado 47.9%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 9 +9.8      +4.6 61 +5.2 49 68.6 193 0.0 1 0.0 1
57 USC 45.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 10 - 10 +9.4      +4.1 70 +5.4 45 70.7 125 0.0 1 0.0 1
67 Utah 35.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 9 - 11 +8.4      +5.3 49 +3.1 90 66.2 251 0.0 1 0.0 1
68 Washington 36.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 9 - 11 +8.4      +3.5 85 +4.8 59 72.0 89 0.0 1 0.0 1
107 California 12.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 7 - 13 +4.4      +2.0 124 +2.4 101 63.0 310 0.0 1 0.0 1
115 Oregon St. 11.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 7 - 13 +3.7      +2.5 107 +1.2 132 64.3 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
129 Washington St. 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 6 - 14 +1.9      +1.0 140 +0.9 141 74.3 54 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Oregon 3.9 23.9 16.9 13.5 10.8 8.9 7.3 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.7
Arizona St. 3.9 22.9 16.9 13.3 11.2 9.3 7.5 6.1 4.7 3.5 2.4 1.6 0.6
UCLA 4.2 19.6 15.2 13.4 11.8 10.2 8.2 6.8 5.4 4.1 2.9 1.9 0.7
Stanford 4.5 16.0 15.0 13.2 11.7 9.8 8.7 7.6 6.1 4.8 3.6 2.2 1.1
Arizona 5.4 10.9 10.5 10.8 11.3 10.5 10.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 5.3 3.5 1.8
Colorado 5.7 8.4 9.4 10.3 10.3 10.7 10.9 9.6 9.2 7.3 6.6 4.5 2.6
USC 6.0 8.2 8.4 9.3 10.2 9.7 10.4 10.1 9.6 8.5 7.1 5.6 3.2
Utah 6.6 5.4 6.4 7.7 8.8 9.2 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.1 9.2 8.0 4.9
Washington 6.7 4.9 6.4 7.9 8.3 9.1 10.1 10.1 10.7 10.4 9.4 7.6 5.1
California 8.6 1.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.1 6.8 8.5 10.5 12.5 14.5 16.4 15.5
Oregon St. 8.9 1.1 1.5 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.1 7.9 10.0 11.6 14.9 18.1 17.7
Washington St. 9.7 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.2 6.1 8.0 10.8 14.7 21.0 27.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Oregon 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.0 5.7 7.1 8.3 9.5 10.7 10.6 10.9 9.4 7.1 5.1 3.0 1.0
Arizona St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 3.0 4.5 5.8 7.0 8.8 9.7 10.5 10.9 10.1 9.6 7.2 5.0 2.7 0.9
UCLA 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.2 3.6 5.0 6.3 7.9 9.1 10.8 10.9 10.6 9.5 7.9 6.2 4.2 2.0 0.6
Stanford 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.7 4.3 5.7 7.5 8.2 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.1 9.1 7.1 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.5
Arizona 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.7 9.3 10.3 10.1 10.2 9.7 7.8 6.4 5.2 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.3
Colorado 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.7 3.6 5.3 6.8 8.5 9.7 10.4 10.0 9.8 8.6 7.6 5.8 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1
USC 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.5 5.9 7.8 8.5 9.9 10.4 9.4 9.4 8.1 6.5 5.2 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Utah 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.7 4.5 6.3 7.2 8.6 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.1 8.6 6.6 5.4 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
Washington 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.0 7.5 9.0 9.9 10.2 9.7 9.3 7.9 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
California 7 - 13 1.1 3.0 5.4 7.7 9.2 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.0 8.7 6.9 5.3 3.9 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 7 - 13 1.2 3.6 6.1 8.5 10.4 11.5 11.0 10.2 9.7 7.8 6.5 4.7 3.3 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 6 - 14 2.2 6.0 9.1 12.1 12.8 11.9 11.4 9.1 7.8 5.9 4.3 3.1 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oregon 23.9% 17.1 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 22.9% 15.8 5.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 19.6% 13.1 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 16.0% 10.3 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 10.9% 7.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 8.4% 5.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
USC 8.2% 5.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 5.4% 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Washington 4.9% 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 1.2% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 1.1% 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oregon 73.2% 19.2% 54.1% 6   8.9 8.7 7.4 7.8 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.6 4.4 3.9 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 26.8 66.9%
Arizona St. 70.9% 16.7% 54.2% 7   7.2 7.6 6.8 6.8 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.4 5.5 4.5 3.7 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 29.1 65.1%
UCLA 71.7% 15.5% 56.2% 7   6.7 7.3 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.2 5.7 4.8 3.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 28.3 66.5%
Stanford 59.6% 11.8% 47.8% 10   3.4 3.9 4.7 5.6 4.9 5.4 5.3 6.4 5.9 5.7 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.4 54.2%
Arizona 56.9% 9.6% 47.4% 10   2.8 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.2 5.5 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 3.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 43.1 52.4%
Colorado 47.9% 7.2% 40.8% 11   1.7 2.5 2.7 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.2 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 52.1 43.9%
USC 45.1% 6.6% 38.5% 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 54.9 41.2%
Utah 35.6% 5.5% 30.2% 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 64.4 31.9%
Washington 36.6% 4.9% 31.7% 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.2 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 63.4 33.3%
California 12.8% 1.4% 11.4% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 87.2 11.5%
Oregon St. 11.0% 1.0% 10.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.0 10.1%
Washington St. 5.6% 0.6% 5.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4 5.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oregon 73.2% 3.7% 71.4% 51.9% 29.5% 15.8% 8.2% 4.2% 2.0%
Arizona St. 70.9% 3.8% 69.1% 48.1% 25.9% 13.0% 6.3% 3.2% 1.5%
UCLA 71.7% 3.3% 69.8% 47.9% 25.2% 12.7% 6.4% 3.1% 1.4%
Stanford 59.6% 3.6% 57.8% 37.5% 17.5% 8.4% 4.1% 1.9% 0.9%
Arizona 56.9% 4.0% 54.7% 33.2% 15.0% 7.0% 3.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Colorado 47.9% 3.6% 45.9% 27.1% 11.6% 5.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4%
USC 45.1% 4.0% 42.9% 25.2% 10.8% 4.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Utah 35.6% 4.0% 33.5% 19.0% 7.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Washington 36.6% 3.7% 34.6% 19.0% 7.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
California 12.8% 2.2% 11.6% 5.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Oregon St. 11.0% 1.9% 10.0% 4.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington St. 5.6% 1.0% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.3 4.1 18.8 35.1 29.8 10.4 1.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.6 6.0 23.1 36.2 25.6 7.5 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 99.5% 3.2 0.5 5.4 20.5 34.3 27.1 9.9 2.1 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 86.9% 1.5 13.1 37.4 34.0 13.2 2.1 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 58.1% 0.7 41.9 43.1 13.4 1.5 0.0
Final Four 31.7% 0.3 68.3 28.6 3.0 0.1
Final Game 16.2% 0.2 83.8 15.8 0.4
Champion 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.6