IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stanford
Pac-12
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.8	#31
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.0	#174
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.3	#65

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.6	#9

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.7%	0.7%	0.4%
#1 Seed	3.4%	3.4%	0.5%
Top 2 Seed	7.3%	7.5%	0.6%
Top 4 Seed	17.6%	17.9%	3.4%
Top 6 Seed	27.9%	28.3%	8.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	59.6%	60.2%	28.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	54.2%	54.8%	26.4%
Average Seed	6.7	6.7	8.1

.500 or above	84.4%	84.9%	54.9%
.500 or above in Conference	75.9%	76.4%	50.6%
Conference Champion	16.0%	16.2%	6.4%
Last Place in Conference	2.1%	2.0%	7.7%

First Four	3.6%	3.6%	3.0%
First Round	57.8%	58.4%	26.3%
Second Round	37.5%	38.0%	12.3%
Sweet Sixteen	17.5%	17.7%	4.8%
Elite Eight	8.4%	8.5%	1.0%
Final Four	4.1%	4.1%	0.1%
Championship Game	1.9%	1.9%	0.1%
National Champion	0.9%	0.9%	0.1%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	2 - 2	4 - 6
Quad 2	5 - 3	8 - 8
Quad 3	5 - 1	13 - 9
Quad 4	4 - 0	18 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	291	Utah Valley	W	82-60	98%
Nov 30, 2020	32	Alabama	W	80-79	50%
Dec 07, 2020	315	Cal Poly	W	83-58	99%
Dec 09, 2020	154	Loyola Marymount	W	73-59	90%
Dec 13, 2020	57	@ USC	L	70-71	48%
Dec 19, 2020	38	Arizona	W	73-69	63%
Dec 21, 2020	230	Sacramento St.	W	73-54	95%
Mar 08, 2021	21	@ Oregon	L	66-71	33%
Mar 08, 2021	115	@ Oregon St.	W	71-66	68%
Mar 08, 2021	68	Washington	W	74-68	71%
Mar 08, 2021	129	Washington St.	W	80-67	86%
Mar 08, 2021	50	@ Colorado	L	70-71	47%
Mar 08, 2021	67	@ Utah	W	71-70	51%
Mar 08, 2021	27	UCLA	W	69-67	56%
Mar 08, 2021	57	USC	W	73-68	67%
Mar 08, 2021	38	@ Arizona	L	70-72	43%
Mar 08, 2021	25	@ Arizona St.	L	75-79	36%
Mar 08, 2021	107	@ California	W	69-65	64%
Mar 09, 2021	50	Colorado	W	73-68	66%
Mar 09, 2021	67	Utah	W	73-67	70%
Mar 09, 2021	68	@ Washington	W	72-71	52%
Mar 09, 2021	129	@ Washington St.	W	77-70	72%
Mar 09, 2021	21	Oregon	W	69-68	53%
Mar 09, 2021	115	Oregon St.	W	74-63	81%
Mar 09, 2021	107	California	W	72-62	80%
Projected Record						16 - 9	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.7	2.2	3.6	4.1	3.0	1.7	0.5		16.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.6	3.9	4.8	3.1	1.2	0.2				15.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.8	4.6	4.3	1.9	0.4	0.0					13.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	2.1	4.5	3.4	1.1	0.1	0.0						11.7	4th
5th										0.3	1.6	4.2	2.9	0.7	0.1								9.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	1.6	3.4	2.8	0.7	0.0									8.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.2	3.3	2.4	0.5	0.0										7.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	0.9	2.6	2.0	0.5	0.0											6.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	0.8	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.0												4.8	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	0.8	1.3	1.2	0.2	0.0													3.6	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0														2.2	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0															1.1	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.9	2.7	4.3	5.7	7.5	8.2	9.9	10.2	10.5	10.1	9.1	7.1	5.4	3.2	1.7	0.5			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
19-1	100.0%	1.7		1.6	0.1
18-2	94.1%	3.0		2.6	0.4	0.0
17-3	77.3%	4.1		2.9	1.1	0.1
16-4	51.1%	3.6		1.8	1.5	0.3	0.0
15-5	24.6%	2.2		0.8	1.0	0.4	0.0
14-6	7.1%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	16.0%	16.0		10.3	4.4	1.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.5%		100.0%	65.4%	34.6%	1.3		0.4	0.1	0.0																100.0%
19-1	1.7%		100.0%	52.4%	47.6%	1.4		1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0															100.0%
18-2	3.2%		100.0%	39.2%	60.8%	2.1		1.2	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0													100.0%
17-3	5.4%		100.0%	34.0%	66.0%	3.0		0.6	1.4	1.6	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0										100.0%
16-4	7.1%		100.0%	26.4%	73.6%	4.2		0.2	0.7	1.5	2.0	1.3	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0									100.0%
15-5	9.1%		99.6%	19.7%	79.9%	5.8		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.5	1.8	2.0	1.5	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.5%
14-6	10.1%		96.7%	16.3%	80.4%	7.2			0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.7	1.8	2.1	1.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.3		96.0%
13-7	10.5%		88.8%	8.7%	80.1%	8.7				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.1	2.0	1.9	1.7	1.1	0.4	0.0				1.2		87.8%
12-8	10.2%		68.7%	5.6%	63.1%	9.7					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.5	1.6	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0			3.2		66.8%
11-9	9.9%		47.7%	4.4%	43.3%	10.6							0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.2	1.3	1.2	0.2	0.0			5.2		45.3%
10-10	8.2%		18.5%	1.7%	16.8%	11.2							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.1	0.0			6.7		17.1%
9-11	7.5%		3.5%	1.1%	2.4%	11.8											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1				7.2		2.4%
8-12	5.7%		0.9%	0.7%	0.2%	12.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		5.6		0.2%
7-13	4.3%		0.5%	0.5%		15.0																0.0		4.3
6-14	2.7%																							2.7
5-15	1.9%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
4-16	1.2%																							1.2
3-17	0.6%																							0.6
2-18	0.2%																							0.2
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		59.6%	11.8%	47.8%	6.7		3.4	3.9	4.7	5.6	4.9	5.4	5.3	6.4	5.9	5.7	4.8	3.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	40.4		54.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.2	80.8	18.8	0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.2	79.2	20.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	85.5	14.5