Preseason Rankings
Colorado
Pac-12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#50
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#193
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 4.6% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 10.5% 11.4% 3.5%
Top 6 Seed 18.6% 20.0% 7.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.9% 50.5% 27.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.9% 46.5% 24.3%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.1
.500 or above 72.2% 75.1% 48.3%
.500 or above in Conference 61.2% 63.1% 45.9%
Conference Champion 8.4% 8.9% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 4.0% 8.5%
First Four3.6% 3.8% 2.5%
First Round45.9% 48.4% 25.6%
Second Round27.1% 28.8% 12.8%
Sweet Sixteen11.6% 12.5% 4.8%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.3% 2.2%
Final Four2.1% 2.2% 1.1%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: South Dakota (Neutral) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 25 - 38 - 10
Quad 36 - 114 - 12
Quad 43 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 206   South Dakota W 81-68 89%    
  Nov 27, 2020 89   @ Kansas St. W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 02, 2020 38   @ Arizona L 70-74 35%    
  Dec 05, 2020 129   Washington St. W 80-69 84%    
  Dec 08, 2020 112   Colorado St. W 80-71 78%    
  Dec 14, 2020 166   Northern Colorado W 75-62 88%    
  Dec 16, 2020 196   Nebraska Omaha W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 20, 2020 68   Washington W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 22, 2020 177   Grand Canyon W 78-67 83%    
  Mar 08, 2021 27   @ UCLA L 66-72 29%    
  Mar 08, 2021 57   @ USC L 70-73 41%    
  Mar 08, 2021 21   Oregon L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 08, 2021 115   Oregon St. W 74-65 78%    
  Mar 08, 2021 107   California W 72-64 76%    
  Mar 08, 2021 31   Stanford W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 08, 2021 68   @ Washington L 72-74 45%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   @ Washington St. W 77-72 65%    
  Mar 08, 2021 67   Utah W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 08, 2021 38   Arizona W 73-71 56%    
  Mar 08, 2021 25   Arizona St. L 78-79 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 107   @ California W 69-67 58%    
  Mar 09, 2021 31   @ Stanford L 68-73 34%    
  Mar 09, 2021 21   @ Oregon L 66-73 28%    
  Mar 09, 2021 115   @ Oregon St. W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 09, 2021 27   UCLA L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 09, 2021 57   USC W 73-70 61%    
  Mar 09, 2021 67   @ Utah L 70-72 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 3.1 0.9 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 3.0 0.6 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.7 3.6 5.3 6.8 8.5 9.7 10.4 10.0 9.8 8.6 7.6 5.8 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 93.9% 1.4    1.3 0.2
17-3 79.3% 2.0    1.4 0.5 0.0
16-4 54.4% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.9% 1.4    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 5.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 57.0% 43.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 54.7% 45.3% 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 2.8 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.2% 99.8% 24.6% 75.2% 3.9 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 5.8% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.6% 98.1% 13.9% 84.3% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 97.8%
13-7 8.6% 92.8% 9.9% 82.9% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 92.0%
12-8 9.8% 80.7% 6.7% 74.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.9 79.3%
11-9 10.0% 57.9% 3.4% 54.5% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.2 56.4%
10-10 10.4% 29.0% 1.8% 27.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.4 27.7%
9-11 9.7% 8.1% 1.3% 6.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.9 6.9%
8-12 8.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.9%
7-13 6.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.4%
6-14 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 5.3
5-15 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 47.9% 7.2% 40.8% 7.3 1.7 2.5 2.7 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.2 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 52.1 43.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.4 4.6