Preseason Rankings
Alabama
Southeastern
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#32
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace83.0#4
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
#1 Seed 4.5% 4.6% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 9.9% 10.1% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 21.0% 21.5% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 33.0% 33.6% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.5% 62.4% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.3% 58.3% 25.3%
Average Seed 6.3 6.3 7.9
.500 or above 70.9% 71.8% 35.1%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 67.8% 41.9%
Conference Champion 10.6% 10.8% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 3.0% 11.9%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 3.6%
First Round59.1% 60.0% 27.2%
Second Round39.0% 39.6% 15.0%
Sweet Sixteen19.1% 19.4% 6.5%
Elite Eight8.8% 9.0% 1.6%
Final Four3.9% 4.0% 0.8%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.1%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 10
Quad 34 - 114 - 11
Quad 42 - 016 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 255   Jacksonville St. W 90-69 97%    
  Nov 30, 2020 31   Stanford L 79-80 50%    
  Dec 12, 2020 49   Clemson W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 15, 2020 83   Furman W 85-77 76%    
  Dec 19, 2020 18   Houston W 78-77 52%    
  Dec 22, 2020 142   East Tennessee St. W 84-70 88%    
  Dec 29, 2020 61   Mississippi W 83-77 68%    
  Jan 02, 2021 20   @ Tennessee L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 05, 2021 22   Florida W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 09, 2021 60   @ Auburn L 83-84 49%    
  Jan 12, 2021 11   @ Kentucky L 77-84 29%    
  Jan 16, 2021 46   Arkansas W 88-83 65%    
  Jan 19, 2021 30   @ LSU L 86-89 40%    
  Jan 23, 2021 72   Mississippi St. W 83-76 72%    
  Jan 26, 2021 11   Kentucky L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 30, 2021 29   @ Oklahoma L 82-85 39%    
  Feb 03, 2021 30   LSU W 89-86 60%    
  Feb 06, 2021 66   @ Missouri W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 09, 2021 59   @ South Carolina L 86-87 48%    
  Feb 13, 2021 94   Georgia W 89-80 78%    
  Feb 17, 2021 78   @ Texas A&M W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 20, 2021 120   Vanderbilt W 89-77 83%    
  Feb 24, 2021 46   @ Arkansas L 85-86 46%    
  Feb 27, 2021 72   @ Mississippi St. W 80-79 53%    
  Mar 02, 2021 60   Auburn W 86-80 67%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.0 2.4 1.1 0.3 10.6 1st
2nd 0.3 1.7 4.2 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 3.9 1.3 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 1.6 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.4 0.3 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.0 6.0 7.9 9.7 10.9 11.0 11.6 10.2 8.6 6.7 4.2 2.7 1.1 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.3% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 90.9% 2.4    2.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 70.3% 3.0    1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.8% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 12.9% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.6% 10.6 6.5 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 56.9% 43.1% 1.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.7% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.2% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 2.3 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.7% 99.9% 24.0% 75.9% 3.3 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 8.6% 99.6% 17.5% 82.0% 4.6 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 10.2% 98.1% 12.8% 85.2% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
11-7 11.6% 94.1% 9.1% 84.9% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.7 93.5%
10-8 11.0% 76.4% 4.6% 71.8% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 75.3%
9-9 10.9% 53.4% 2.5% 50.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.1 52.2%
8-10 9.7% 23.0% 2.1% 20.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.4 21.3%
7-11 7.9% 7.4% 1.3% 6.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 6.1%
6-12 6.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.5%
5-13 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.5% 9.7% 51.8% 6.3 4.5 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 5.2 4.9 4.1 3.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 38.5 57.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 79.1 20.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 75.0 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0