IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Furman
Southern
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.8	#83
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.6	#187
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.4	#87

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.4	#83

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.4%	1.5%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	3.0%	3.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	36.2%	36.9%	20.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	7.8%	8.1%	1.7%
Average Seed	11.2	11.1	13.0

.500 or above	92.1%	93.0%	70.4%
.500 or above in Conference	95.4%	95.8%	85.2%
Conference Champion	41.5%	42.4%	20.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.2%	1.1%

First Four	2.0%	2.0%	1.3%
First Round	35.2%	35.9%	19.4%
Second Round	11.4%	11.8%	3.3%
Sweet Sixteen	3.9%	4.0%	0.6%
Elite Eight	1.2%	1.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 2	2 - 4
Quad 3	6 - 3	8 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 1	18 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 28, 2020	307	South Carolina Upstate	W	83-65	96%
Dec 05, 2020	53	@ Richmond	L	71-77	30%
Dec 09, 2020	55	@ Cincinnati	L	68-74	30%
Dec 15, 2020	32	@ Alabama	L	77-85	24%
Dec 19, 2020	124	@ Winthrop	W	78-77	55%
Dec 21, 2020	347	South Carolina St.	W	86-57	99%
Dec 30, 2020	158	@ Chattanooga	W	75-71	62%
Jan 02, 2021	183	Mercer	W	77-66	83%
Jan 06, 2021	182	@ Western Carolina	W	81-76	67%
Jan 09, 2021	276	VMI	W	81-65	91%
Jan 13, 2021	317	@ The Citadel	W	88-74	89%
Jan 16, 2021	142	East Tennessee St.	W	73-64	77%
Jan 20, 2021	276	@ VMI	W	78-68	81%
Jan 23, 2021	142	@ East Tennessee St.	W	70-67	58%
Jan 27, 2021	84	UNC Greensboro	W	72-69	60%
Jan 30, 2021	158	Chattanooga	W	78-68	79%
Feb 03, 2021	301	@ Samford	W	85-73	84%
Feb 06, 2021	148	Wofford	W	74-65	77%
Feb 10, 2021	84	@ UNC Greensboro	L	69-72	42%
Feb 13, 2021	182	Western Carolina	W	84-73	82%
Feb 17, 2021	301	Samford	W	88-70	93%
Feb 20, 2021	183	@ Mercer	W	74-69	66%
Feb 24, 2021	317	The Citadel	W	91-71	95%
Feb 27, 2021	148	@ Wofford	W	71-68	58%
Projected Record						17 - 7	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	2.0	5.7	10.0	11.4	8.6	3.5		41.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.0	0.7	3.1	7.1	7.9	4.1	1.1				24.1	2nd
3rd										0.1	0.8	3.0	5.2	4.1	1.1	0.1					14.4	3rd
4th									0.1	0.6	2.4	3.4	1.9	0.3	0.0						8.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	1.8	2.3	0.9	0.1								5.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.5	1.1	1.1	0.4	0.0									3.2	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0										1.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0											0.8	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.3	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	10th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.6	1.4	2.0	3.8	5.8	8.1	10.6	13.6	14.7	14.1	12.5	8.6	3.5			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.5		3.5
17-1	100.0%	8.6		8.3	0.4
16-2	90.8%	11.4		9.5	1.9	0.0
15-3	70.9%	10.0		6.5	3.3	0.3
14-4	38.5%	5.7		2.5	2.4	0.7	0.0
13-5	15.1%	2.0		0.5	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	41.5%	41.5		30.7	8.9	1.6	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.5%		92.9%	68.9%	24.0%	6.4		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		77.2%
17-1	8.6%		80.4%	60.8%	19.6%	9.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.6	1.1	1.2	1.0	1.0	0.4	0.0			1.7		49.9%
16-2	12.5%		63.3%	49.1%	14.2%	11.1					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.9	2.5	1.1	0.2	0.0		4.6		27.8%
15-3	14.1%		44.8%	39.2%	5.6%	12.0								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	2.4	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	7.8		9.2%
14-4	14.7%		31.3%	29.7%	1.6%	12.7										0.0	0.1	0.4	1.6	1.6	0.8	0.1		10.1		2.3%
13-5	13.6%		24.7%	24.5%	0.3%	13.3											0.0	0.1	0.6	1.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	10.2		0.4%
12-6	10.6%		18.9%	18.8%	0.1%	13.6												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.0	8.6		0.1%
11-7	8.1%		11.2%	11.2%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.0	7.2
10-8	5.8%		10.2%	10.2%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.0	5.2
9-9	3.8%		6.3%	6.3%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.6
8-10	2.0%		5.5%	5.5%		15.5														0.0		0.1	0.1	1.9
7-11	1.4%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
6-12	0.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
5-13	0.3%																							0.3
4-14	0.2%		4.7%	4.7%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		36.2%	30.9%	5.4%	11.2		0.2	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.9	0.6	1.0	1.2	2.1	3.1	4.7	8.5	7.0	3.8	1.6	0.3	63.8		7.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	2.3	24.2	42.0	15.9	13.5	4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	4.8		5.4		27.0	43.2	24.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	5.4					78.0		22.0