Preseason Rankings
VMI
Southern
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#276
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#195
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#235
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#300
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.9% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 13.9 15.0
.500 or above 11.7% 35.6% 10.6%
.500 or above in Conference 19.3% 37.4% 18.5%
Conference Champion 0.7% 2.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 22.8% 9.7% 23.4%
First Four0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round0.9% 1.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 4.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 13
Quad 45 - 48 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 62   @ Penn St. L 67-86 4%    
  Dec 03, 2020 56   @ Virginia Tech L 59-78 4%    
  Dec 10, 2020 183   Mercer L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 13, 2020 321   Hampton W 82-75 74%    
  Dec 18, 2020 247   @ Gardner-Webb L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 21, 2020 103   @ Wake Forest L 69-83 10%    
  Dec 30, 2020 301   @ Samford L 80-81 45%    
  Jan 02, 2021 158   Chattanooga L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 06, 2021 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-76 18%    
  Jan 09, 2021 83   @ Furman L 65-81 9%    
  Jan 13, 2021 148   Wofford L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 16, 2021 317   The Citadel W 86-79 72%    
  Jan 20, 2021 83   Furman L 68-78 19%    
  Jan 23, 2021 183   @ Mercer L 69-77 25%    
  Jan 27, 2021 182   Western Carolina L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 30, 2021 84   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-80 9%    
  Feb 03, 2021 148   @ Wofford L 66-76 19%    
  Feb 10, 2021 182   @ Western Carolina L 75-83 25%    
  Feb 13, 2021 301   Samford W 83-78 65%    
  Feb 17, 2021 84   UNC Greensboro L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 20, 2021 317   @ The Citadel W 83-82 53%    
  Feb 24, 2021 142   East Tennessee St. L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 27, 2021 158   @ Chattanooga L 69-79 22%    
Projected Record 7 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 5.0 5.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.2 7.0 5.6 2.0 0.3 20.0 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 5.8 6.7 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 19.6 9th
10th 1.2 3.6 5.0 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 15.1 10th
Total 1.2 3.8 7.2 10.3 12.5 12.7 12.3 11.4 9.3 7.1 4.9 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 70.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 6.3% 4.7% 1.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6%
15-3 0.2% 19.9% 16.6% 3.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.0%
14-4 0.6% 13.9% 13.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.1% 13.6% 13.6% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-6 1.9% 6.3% 6.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
11-7 3.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.2
10-8 4.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8
9-9 7.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.0
8-10 9.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.2
7-11 11.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.3
6-12 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
5-13 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
4-14 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.5
3-15 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.3
2-16 7.2% 7.2
1-17 3.8% 3.8
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%