Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#183
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#189
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#192
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 9.3% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.6 12.5 13.9
.500 or above 43.9% 72.4% 40.4%
.500 or above in Conference 54.7% 72.4% 52.5%
Conference Champion 4.8% 10.1% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 1.2% 5.4%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round5.0% 9.0% 4.5%
Second Round0.6% 1.4% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 11.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 48 - 312 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 63   @ Georgia Tech L 65-78 11%    
  Nov 30, 2020 106   Georgia St. L 76-79 40%    
  Dec 03, 2020 215   @ Elon L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 10, 2020 276   @ VMI W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 13, 2020 203   @ Georgia Southern L 74-76 44%    
  Dec 16, 2020 106   @ Georgia St. L 73-82 22%    
  Dec 22, 2020 342   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-64 86%    
  Dec 30, 2020 148   Wofford W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 02, 2021 83   @ Furman L 66-77 17%    
  Jan 06, 2021 317   The Citadel W 87-75 85%    
  Jan 09, 2021 84   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-76 18%    
  Jan 13, 2021 158   @ Chattanooga L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 16, 2021 182   Western Carolina W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 20, 2021 317   @ The Citadel W 84-78 69%    
  Jan 23, 2021 276   VMI W 77-69 75%    
  Jan 27, 2021 301   Samford W 84-74 80%    
  Jan 30, 2021 148   @ Wofford L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 03, 2021 142   East Tennessee St. W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 10, 2021 301   @ Samford W 81-77 62%    
  Feb 13, 2021 84   UNC Greensboro L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 17, 2021 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-72 32%    
  Feb 20, 2021 83   Furman L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 24, 2021 158   Chattanooga W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 27, 2021 182   @ Western Carolina L 76-79 41%    
Projected Record 11 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 4.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 4.6 1.8 0.2 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 4.5 1.3 0.1 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.0 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.2 4.1 6.4 8.8 10.4 11.9 12.0 11.8 10.0 8.3 5.6 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.9% 0.9    0.7 0.2
15-3 66.2% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1
14-4 35.3% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 85.1% 31.1% 54.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.4%
17-1 0.3% 64.6% 38.3% 26.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 42.6%
16-2 1.0% 44.5% 36.7% 7.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12.3%
15-3 2.1% 28.3% 26.3% 2.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 2.7%
14-4 3.5% 24.8% 24.0% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6 1.1%
13-5 5.6% 11.4% 11.4% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.0
12-6 8.3% 9.2% 9.2% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.5
11-7 10.0% 6.2% 6.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.4
10-8 11.8% 3.4% 3.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.4
9-9 12.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.6
8-10 11.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.7
7-11 10.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.3
6-12 8.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.8
5-13 6.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-14 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.3% 5.0% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 94.7 0.3%