Preseason Rankings
Chattanooga
Southern
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#158
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.7#240
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#229
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 9.6% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 67.3% 72.2% 40.3%
.500 or above in Conference 65.7% 68.5% 50.0%
Conference Champion 8.0% 8.9% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.3% 5.5%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round8.4% 9.2% 3.8%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 84.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 410 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 292   Bellarmine W 69-58 85%    
  Nov 28, 2020 167   Northern Kentucky W 72-68 63%    
  Nov 30, 2020 304   @ Tennessee Tech W 73-68 69%    
  Dec 06, 2020 193   @ Middle Tennessee L 74-75 48%    
  Dec 09, 2020 292   @ Bellarmine W 66-61 66%    
  Dec 16, 2020 226   UNC Asheville W 81-74 74%    
  Dec 19, 2020 131   @ UAB L 68-73 34%    
  Dec 21, 2020 269   @ Tennessee St. W 74-71 62%    
  Dec 30, 2020 83   Furman L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 02, 2021 276   @ VMI W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 06, 2021 301   Samford W 85-74 83%    
  Jan 09, 2021 317   @ The Citadel W 86-79 74%    
  Jan 13, 2021 183   Mercer W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 16, 2021 148   Wofford W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 20, 2021 301   @ Samford W 82-77 67%    
  Jan 23, 2021 84   UNC Greensboro L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 27, 2021 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 30, 2021 83   @ Furman L 68-78 21%    
  Feb 03, 2021 182   @ Western Carolina L 78-80 45%    
  Feb 06, 2021 142   East Tennessee St. W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 10, 2021 148   @ Wofford L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 13, 2021 317   The Citadel W 89-76 87%    
  Feb 17, 2021 182   Western Carolina W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 21, 2021 84   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 24, 2021 183   @ Mercer L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 27, 2021 276   VMI W 79-69 78%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.2 8.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 2.4 4.3 3.1 1.1 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.2 5.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 5.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.6 4.9 1.4 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 3.8 0.9 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.4 6.4 8.9 10.1 11.8 12.1 11.8 9.8 8.4 5.6 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 93.4% 1.6    1.2 0.4
15-3 68.5% 2.3    1.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 35.0% 2.0    0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 10.6% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 4.5 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 94.4% 55.3% 39.1% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.5%
17-1 0.8% 68.5% 42.5% 26.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 45.2%
16-2 1.7% 51.0% 41.3% 9.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 16.5%
15-3 3.4% 34.0% 31.7% 2.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 3.3%
14-4 5.6% 24.2% 23.5% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.3 0.9%
13-5 8.4% 17.1% 16.9% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.0 0.2%
12-6 9.8% 10.1% 10.1% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.8
11-7 11.8% 7.1% 7.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 11.0
10-8 12.1% 5.3% 5.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 11.5
9-9 11.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 11.4
8-10 10.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.9
7-11 8.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.9
6-12 6.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-13 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-14 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.7% 8.1% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.0 1.3 0.7 91.3 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 45.7 48.6 2.9 2.9