IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UAB
Conference USA
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.9	#131
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.8	#302
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.8	#144

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.1	#137

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.2%	8.3%	4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.3%	1.3%	0.6%
Average Seed	12.2	12.2	13.3

.500 or above	77.1%	78.4%	49.9%
.500 or above in Conference	67.9%	68.7%	49.3%
Conference Champion	9.4%	9.6%	4.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.6%	2.4%	8.3%

First Four	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%
First Round	7.8%	8.0%	4.6%
Second Round	1.9%	2.0%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.6%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 95.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 9
Quad 4	11 - 2	17 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	334	Alcorn St.	W	80-62	96%
Nov 28, 2020	319	SE Louisiana	W	80-65	92%
Dec 02, 2020	342	Kennesaw St.	W	77-56	98%
Dec 06, 2020	281	Troy	W	76-64	85%
Dec 12, 2020	142	@ East Tennessee St.	L	65-67	42%
Dec 16, 2020	262	Southern	W	73-62	83%
Dec 19, 2020	158	Chattanooga	W	73-68	66%
Dec 23, 2020	63	Georgia Tech	L	67-71	35%
Jan 01, 2021	95	@ North Texas	L	61-68	28%
Jan 02, 2021	95	@ North Texas	L	61-68	28%
Jan 08, 2021	229	Southern Miss	W	71-62	78%
Jan 09, 2021	229	Southern Miss	W	71-62	79%
Jan 15, 2021	164	@ Charlotte	L	65-66	48%
Jan 16, 2021	164	@ Charlotte	L	65-66	47%
Jan 22, 2021	265	Rice	W	78-67	82%
Jan 23, 2021	265	Rice	W	78-67	82%
Jan 28, 2021	193	@ Middle Tennessee	W	71-70	54%
Jan 30, 2021	193	Middle Tennessee	W	74-67	73%
Feb 05, 2021	161	UTEP	W	69-64	66%
Feb 06, 2021	161	UTEP	W	69-64	66%
Feb 12, 2021	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	66-71	33%
Feb 13, 2021	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	66-71	33%
Feb 19, 2021	118	Old Dominion	W	67-65	55%
Feb 20, 2021	118	Old Dominion	W	67-65	55%
Feb 25, 2021	153	@ Texas San Antonio	L	76-78	45%
Feb 27, 2021	153	@ Texas San Antonio	L	76-78	45%
Projected Record						16 - 10	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.0	2.2	2.9	1.9	0.9	0.2		9.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.8	3.8	3.1	1.3	0.3	0.0			10.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	2.2	4.1	3.1	0.7	0.1					10.4	3rd
4th										0.1	1.7	4.5	3.2	0.7	0.0						10.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.9	4.4	3.7	0.6	0.1							9.7	5th
6th									0.6	3.3	4.5	1.0	0.0								9.4	6th
7th								0.2	2.2	4.2	1.7	0.1									8.3	7th
8th							0.1	1.3	3.7	2.1	0.2										7.5	8th
9th						0.0	0.6	2.9	2.7	0.3	0.0										6.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.4	2.0	2.6	0.7	0.0											5.7	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	1.3	2.2	0.7	0.1												4.7	11th
12th			0.0	0.2	1.0	1.7	0.8	0.1													3.8	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.1														2.2	13th
14th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0														1.4	14th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.3	3.9	6.0	7.9	9.9	11.0	12.7	11.9	9.9	8.7	6.1	4.3	2.1	1.0	0.2			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
17-1	95.7%	0.9		0.8	0.1
16-2	86.8%	1.9		1.5	0.4	0.0
15-3	69.1%	2.9		1.8	1.0	0.2
14-4	36.4%	2.2		0.9	0.9	0.3	0.0
13-5	11.7%	1.0		0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.3%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.4%	9.4		5.4	2.8	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		95.7%	53.9%	41.7%	6.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		90.6%
17-1	1.0%		73.3%	39.5%	33.9%	8.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1				0.3		56.0%
16-2	2.1%		47.4%	31.6%	15.9%	10.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0			1.1		23.2%
15-3	4.3%		30.1%	23.4%	6.7%	11.9									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.1			3.0		8.7%
14-4	6.1%		22.2%	20.1%	2.1%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0		4.8		2.6%
13-5	8.7%		13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	13.0										0.0		0.0	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	7.5		0.3%
12-6	9.9%		10.1%	10.1%		13.5													0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	8.9
11-7	11.9%		5.9%	5.9%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	11.2
10-8	12.7%		3.1%	3.1%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	12.3
9-9	11.0%		1.6%	1.6%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.8
8-10	9.9%		1.1%	1.1%		15.1															0.0	0.1	0.0	9.8
7-11	7.9%		0.5%	0.5%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	7.9
6-12	6.0%		0.4%	0.4%		15.4																0.0	0.0	5.9
5-13	3.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
4-14	2.3%																							2.3
3-15	1.3%																							1.3
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		8.2%	7.0%	1.2%	12.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	2.1	2.2	1.3	0.6	0.2	91.8		1.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.0	2.1	4.2	37.5	18.8	18.8	18.8