Preseason Rankings
UTEP
Conference USA
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#161
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.1#233
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#224
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 12.7% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 3.5% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.3 11.5 12.6
.500 or above 43.7% 72.6% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 56.0% 75.7% 53.9%
Conference Champion 6.1% 13.0% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 1.7% 6.5%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round4.8% 12.3% 4.0%
Second Round1.0% 3.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 1.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 9.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 45 - 210 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 29, 2020 38   @ Arizona L 63-77 10%    
  Dec 08, 2020 74   @ St. Mary's L 61-72 16%    
  Jan 01, 2021 229   @ Southern Miss W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 02, 2021 229   @ Southern Miss W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 08, 2021 265   Rice W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 09, 2021 265   Rice W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 15, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 61-70 23%    
  Jan 16, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 61-70 23%    
  Jan 22, 2021 109   Louisiana Tech L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 23, 2021 109   Louisiana Tech L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 28, 2021 153   @ Texas San Antonio L 75-79 38%    
  Jan 30, 2021 153   Texas San Antonio W 78-76 58%    
  Feb 05, 2021 131   @ UAB L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 06, 2021 131   @ UAB L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 12, 2021 171   Florida International W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 13, 2021 171   Florida International W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 19, 2021 191   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 20, 2021 191   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 26, 2021 164   Charlotte W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 27, 2021 164   Charlotte W 67-64 61%    
Projected Record 9 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.8 0.9 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.5 1.2 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.1 0.2 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 1.2 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.5 13th
14th 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 14th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.4 6.4 7.9 9.9 10.6 11.6 10.6 9.7 8.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-1 98.4% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 85.0% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 63.1% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1
14-4 33.3% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 86.5% 27.0% 59.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.6%
17-1 0.7% 63.9% 37.3% 26.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 42.5%
16-2 1.3% 47.3% 31.0% 16.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 23.7%
15-3 2.9% 28.5% 22.5% 6.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.1 7.7%
14-4 4.6% 18.1% 16.4% 1.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.8 2.0%
13-5 6.3% 10.2% 10.1% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.2%
12-6 8.2% 7.4% 7.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.6
11-7 9.7% 3.9% 3.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.3
10-8 10.6% 1.9% 1.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.4
9-9 11.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.5
8-10 10.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 10.6
7-11 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.9
6-12 7.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-13 6.4% 6.4
4-14 4.4% 4.4
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.0% 4.2% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 95.0 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%