Preseason Rankings
Richmond
Atlantic 10
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#53
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#135
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 3.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 7.6% 8.1% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 13.3% 14.2% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.3% 51.4% 25.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.9% 39.9% 17.3%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 9.9
.500 or above 87.1% 88.9% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 88.2% 74.3%
Conference Champion 26.9% 28.0% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 1.3%
First Four5.4% 5.6% 4.0%
First Round46.5% 48.5% 22.8%
Second Round24.6% 26.0% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen9.7% 10.2% 3.2%
Elite Eight3.9% 4.2% 0.7%
Final Four1.6% 1.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Neutral) - 92.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 38 - 214 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 245   Detroit Mercy W 85-70 92%    
  Nov 27, 2020 296   Morehead St. W 82-64 95%    
  Nov 29, 2020 11   @ Kentucky L 69-78 22%    
  Dec 02, 2020 162   @ College of Charleston W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 05, 2020 83   Furman W 77-71 70%    
  Dec 09, 2020 64   Northern Iowa W 74-70 64%    
  Dec 13, 2020 7   @ West Virginia L 70-79 22%    
  Dec 16, 2020 120   @ Vanderbilt W 77-73 62%    
  Dec 19, 2020 90   Duquesne W 78-71 72%    
  Dec 22, 2020 152   Hofstra W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 30, 2020 81   @ Davidson L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 02, 2021 85   St. Bonaventure W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 06, 2021 93   Rhode Island W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 09, 2021 123   @ George Mason W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 16, 2021 99   Virginia Commonwealth W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 20, 2021 85   @ St. Bonaventure W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 23, 2021 157   La Salle W 81-68 86%    
  Jan 26, 2021 174   @ Saint Joseph's W 84-76 73%    
  Jan 29, 2021 52   Saint Louis W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 02, 2021 123   George Mason W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 05, 2021 47   @ Dayton L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 09, 2021 198   George Washington W 79-64 89%    
  Feb 12, 2021 99   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 20, 2021 157   @ La Salle W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 23, 2021 201   Fordham W 73-58 90%    
  Feb 25, 2021 52   @ Saint Louis L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 03, 2021 128   @ Massachusetts W 78-73 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.7 7.3 6.2 3.6 1.1 26.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.5 5.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.0 5.7 3.7 0.8 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 4.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.5 5.4 6.9 9.1 11.7 12.7 13.2 12.3 9.7 6.6 3.6 1.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 99.0% 3.6    3.5 0.2
16-2 93.0% 6.2    5.3 0.9 0.0
15-3 75.1% 7.3    4.8 2.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 46.3% 5.7    2.3 2.5 0.8 0.1
13-5 18.4% 2.4    0.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.9% 26.9 17.5 7.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 100.0% 62.7% 37.3% 2.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.6% 100.0% 49.9% 50.1% 3.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.6% 98.8% 39.8% 59.0% 5.5 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
15-3 9.7% 92.9% 32.9% 60.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 89.4%
14-4 12.3% 82.3% 27.3% 55.0% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 75.7%
13-5 13.2% 64.4% 19.4% 45.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.2 4.7 55.9%
12-6 12.7% 43.5% 14.4% 29.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.2 34.0%
11-7 11.7% 25.2% 10.0% 15.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.7 17.0%
10-8 9.1% 13.3% 6.4% 6.9% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.9 7.4%
9-9 6.9% 5.7% 3.9% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 1.9%
8-10 5.4% 2.7% 2.2% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.5%
7-11 3.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.2%
6-12 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 49.3% 18.3% 31.0% 8.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.6 6.5 7.0 7.1 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 50.7 37.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 14.8 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 95.2 4.8