Preseason Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#47
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.6#221
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 3.9% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 8.9% 9.3% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 14.6% 15.2% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.1% 51.6% 23.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.4% 39.8% 15.6%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 9.5
.500 or above 87.7% 89.1% 64.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.2% 87.0% 71.0%
Conference Champion 27.5% 28.3% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 2.5%
First Four4.8% 5.0% 2.9%
First Round47.5% 49.0% 22.2%
Second Round25.5% 26.4% 9.6%
Sweet Sixteen10.5% 11.0% 3.2%
Elite Eight4.8% 5.0% 0.9%
Final Four2.0% 2.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Neutral) - 94.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 25 - 36 - 6
Quad 37 - 213 - 8
Quad 44 - 017 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 01, 2020 292   Bellarmine W 72-55 95%    
  Dec 05, 2020 65   SMU W 73-69 65%    
  Dec 08, 2020 227   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-63 94%    
  Dec 12, 2020 72   Mississippi St. W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 19, 2020 61   Mississippi W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 30, 2020 157   La Salle W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 02, 2021 123   George Mason W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 05, 2021 201   @ Fordham W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 08, 2021 81   @ Davidson W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 13, 2021 90   Duquesne W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 16, 2021 85   @ St. Bonaventure W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 17, 2021 198   George Washington W 78-63 91%    
  Jan 23, 2021 99   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 26, 2021 52   @ Saint Louis L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 30, 2021 93   Rhode Island W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 02, 2021 90   @ Duquesne W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 05, 2021 53   Richmond W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 09, 2021 128   @ Massachusetts W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 13, 2021 174   Saint Joseph's W 85-71 87%    
  Feb 16, 2021 93   @ Rhode Island W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 19, 2021 52   Saint Louis W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 28, 2021 85   @ St. Bonaventure W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 03, 2021 99   Virginia Commonwealth W 75-67 75%    
Projected Record 16 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.8 7.5 6.3 3.9 1.2 27.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.2 5.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.7 5.3 3.5 0.8 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 4.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.5 5.5 7.6 9.4 11.1 12.2 12.6 11.9 9.6 6.7 3.9 1.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.3% 3.9    3.7 0.2
16-2 93.7% 6.3    5.4 0.9 0.0
15-3 78.4% 7.5    5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 48.8% 5.8    2.5 2.5 0.7 0.1
13-5 18.4% 2.3    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 18.4 7.0 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 100.0% 60.2% 39.8% 2.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.9% 100.0% 55.8% 44.2% 3.1 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.7% 98.5% 43.8% 54.7% 5.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.4%
15-3 9.6% 96.2% 33.3% 62.9% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 94.3%
14-4 11.9% 86.4% 26.5% 60.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.3 2.2 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 1.6 81.6%
13-5 12.6% 68.8% 22.1% 46.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.9 59.9%
12-6 12.2% 46.2% 14.6% 31.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.6 36.9%
11-7 11.1% 26.7% 11.3% 15.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.1 17.4%
10-8 9.4% 11.6% 6.3% 5.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 8.3 5.7%
9-9 7.6% 4.5% 3.3% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 1.3%
8-10 5.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0%
7-11 3.5% 1.5% 1.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 2.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 50.1% 19.0% 31.1% 8.1 1.6 2.2 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 4.1 3.9 6.1 7.6 7.1 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 49.9 38.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.7 51.0 33.8 13.3 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 39.8 52.2 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 40.4 39.4 9.6 10.6