Preseason Rankings
SMU
American Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#65
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.3#326
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.3% 4.5% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 8.7% 9.1% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.0% 35.3% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.0% 27.2% 8.2%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 9.8
.500 or above 81.8% 83.4% 55.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 76.4% 54.9%
Conference Champion 13.2% 13.8% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.2% 4.8%
First Four4.2% 4.3% 2.1%
First Round31.9% 33.2% 11.8%
Second Round17.0% 17.7% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.4% 6.6% 2.8%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.8% 0.7%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 36 - 212 - 10
Quad 45 - 017 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 246   Sam Houston St. W 82-65 94%    
  Nov 30, 2020 303   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-57 96%    
  Dec 02, 2020 339   Houston Baptist W 96-69 99%    
  Dec 05, 2020 47   @ Dayton L 69-73 35%    
  Dec 08, 2020 120   Vanderbilt W 76-67 78%    
  Dec 16, 2020 151   East Carolina W 78-67 83%    
  Dec 30, 2020 145   @ Temple W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 03, 2021 18   Houston L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 06, 2021 55   Cincinnati W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 09, 2021 145   Temple W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 14, 2021 40   @ Memphis L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 17, 2021 77   Wichita St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 20, 2021 210   @ Tulane W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 23, 2021 111   @ Central Florida W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 27, 2021 40   Memphis W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 31, 2021 18   @ Houston L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 06, 2021 97   South Florida W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 08, 2021 151   @ East Carolina W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 13, 2021 98   @ Tulsa W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 17, 2021 210   Tulane W 78-63 89%    
  Feb 20, 2021 97   @ South Florida W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 23, 2021 111   Central Florida W 73-65 73%    
  Feb 28, 2021 77   @ Wichita St. L 70-72 45%    
  Mar 04, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati L 67-71 36%    
  Mar 07, 2021 98   Tulsa W 70-63 70%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.3 3.4 2.6 1.1 0.3 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.7 4.6 3.0 1.1 0.1 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.0 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.3 4.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.3 3.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 5.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.8 4.1 6.4 7.9 9.4 10.1 11.1 10.9 9.8 8.5 6.7 4.6 2.7 1.1 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 94.8% 2.6    2.3 0.3
17-3 75.1% 3.4    2.4 1.0 0.0
16-4 49.8% 3.3    1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 21.8% 1.9    0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 8.6 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 46.8% 53.2% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 43.7% 56.3% 2.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 4.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-3 4.6% 98.6% 29.4% 69.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
16-4 6.7% 92.2% 24.8% 67.3% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 89.6%
15-5 8.5% 80.2% 19.7% 60.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.7 75.4%
14-6 9.8% 59.0% 15.3% 43.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.0 51.6%
13-7 10.9% 35.0% 11.5% 23.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 26.6%
12-8 11.1% 15.0% 7.0% 8.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.4 8.6%
11-9 10.1% 6.5% 4.2% 2.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4 2.5%
10-10 9.4% 2.5% 2.0% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.1 0.5%
9-11 7.9% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0%
8-12 6.4% 0.9% 0.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
7-13 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.8% 2.8
5-15 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 34.0% 10.8% 23.2% 8.5 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.9 4.8 5.2 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 66.0 26.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 55.1 44.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 30.8 53.8 15.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 42.9 35.7 21.4