Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
American Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#55
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.4#197
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.7% 2.9% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 7.7% 8.5% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 14.1% 15.4% 4.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.4% 49.1% 24.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.0% 40.6% 18.7%
Average Seed 8.0 8.0 9.2
.500 or above 78.6% 81.7% 54.3%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 82.8% 66.1%
Conference Champion 16.6% 17.7% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 1.6%
First Four4.7% 4.7% 4.5%
First Round44.0% 46.6% 22.6%
Second Round24.2% 25.9% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen10.0% 10.7% 3.9%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.4% 1.6%
Final Four1.6% 1.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 37 - 214 - 10
Quad 43 - 017 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 170   Lipscomb W 79-66 89%    
  Dec 06, 2020 58   Xavier W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 09, 2020 83   Furman W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 12, 2020 20   @ Tennessee L 64-71 25%    
  Dec 16, 2020 97   South Florida W 69-62 73%    
  Dec 19, 2020 94   @ Georgia W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 22, 2020 111   @ Central Florida W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 02, 2021 98   Tulsa W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 06, 2021 65   @ SMU L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 09, 2021 77   @ Wichita St. L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 13, 2021 151   East Carolina W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 16, 2021 210   Tulane W 79-63 91%    
  Jan 20, 2021 145   @ Temple W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 23, 2021 18   @ Houston L 65-73 26%    
  Jan 27, 2021 77   Wichita St. W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 30, 2021 97   @ South Florida W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 04, 2021 145   Temple W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 06, 2021 210   @ Tulane W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 11, 2021 40   @ Memphis L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 14, 2021 111   Central Florida W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 21, 2021 18   Houston L 68-70 46%    
  Feb 24, 2021 98   @ Tulsa W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 28, 2021 40   Memphis W 75-73 55%    
  Mar 04, 2021 65   SMU W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 07, 2021 151   @ East Carolina W 76-70 69%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.9 4.3 3.4 1.6 0.4 16.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 5.6 3.7 1.4 0.2 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.2 5.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.4 4.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.2 3.3 4.9 6.4 8.5 9.9 10.7 11.4 10.8 10.4 8.0 5.7 3.6 1.6 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 94.8% 3.4    2.9 0.5 0.0
17-3 76.2% 4.3    3.1 1.1 0.1
16-4 48.3% 3.9    2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 21.8% 2.3    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 11.0 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 60.4% 39.6% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 100.0% 55.7% 44.3% 2.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.6% 99.8% 38.9% 60.9% 3.8 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
17-3 5.7% 99.2% 35.4% 63.8% 5.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
16-4 8.0% 95.9% 26.4% 69.5% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 94.4%
15-5 10.4% 87.8% 21.2% 66.6% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.3 84.5%
14-6 10.8% 70.3% 15.1% 55.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.2 65.0%
13-7 11.4% 51.7% 11.5% 40.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.5 45.4%
12-8 10.7% 26.8% 6.8% 20.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.8 21.5%
11-9 9.9% 12.4% 4.9% 7.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.7 7.8%
10-10 8.5% 6.5% 4.3% 2.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 2.3%
9-11 6.4% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0%
8-12 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
7-13 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-14 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 46.4% 13.6% 32.8% 8.0 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.9 6.1 5.9 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 53.6 38.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 47.6 52.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 65.5 3.4 27.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 50.0 40.0 10.0