Preseason Rankings
Tulsa
American Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#98
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#287
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#168
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 3.8% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 23.9% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.4% 18.9% 6.6%
Average Seed 9.6 9.3 10.1
.500 or above 53.3% 70.1% 42.2%
.500 or above in Conference 50.3% 61.1% 43.1%
Conference Champion 4.1% 6.1% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.3% 6.4%
First Four2.7% 3.7% 2.0%
First Round14.0% 22.0% 8.7%
Second Round6.1% 9.7% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 3.2% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Neutral) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 36 - 310 - 13
Quad 44 - 014 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 69   TCU L 61-64 40%    
  Dec 04, 2020 156   Texas Arlington W 70-62 76%    
  Dec 08, 2020 46   Arkansas L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 12, 2020 178   @ Oral Roberts W 74-71 62%    
  Dec 15, 2020 77   Wichita St. W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 18, 2020 283   Northwestern St. W 80-65 91%    
  Dec 21, 2020 40   @ Memphis L 66-75 22%    
  Dec 29, 2020 18   Houston L 62-68 30%    
  Jan 02, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 06, 2021 97   @ South Florida L 61-64 40%    
  Jan 09, 2021 111   Central Florida W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 13, 2021 77   @ Wichita St. L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 17, 2021 40   Memphis L 69-72 42%    
  Jan 20, 2021 18   @ Houston L 59-71 16%    
  Jan 23, 2021 210   Tulane W 73-61 83%    
  Jan 30, 2021 151   @ East Carolina W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 03, 2021 97   South Florida W 64-61 59%    
  Feb 06, 2021 111   @ Central Florida L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 10, 2021 210   @ Tulane W 70-64 68%    
  Feb 13, 2021 65   SMU L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 17, 2021 145   Temple W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 24, 2021 55   Cincinnati L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 27, 2021 151   East Carolina W 74-66 73%    
  Mar 02, 2021 145   @ Temple W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 07, 2021 65   @ SMU L 63-70 30%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.1 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.9 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.8 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.7 3.9 1.4 0.1 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.4 3.3 0.7 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 5.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.2 7.4 8.6 10.6 10.8 10.6 10.0 8.8 7.2 5.6 3.7 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 88.5% 0.5    0.5 0.1
17-3 76.3% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 46.4% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 26.3% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 92.9% 7.1% 1.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 54.0% 46.0% 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 98.6% 37.6% 61.1% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
17-3 1.2% 96.2% 26.4% 69.8% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.8%
16-4 2.4% 89.5% 17.0% 72.6% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 87.4%
15-5 3.7% 77.5% 16.7% 60.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 72.9%
14-6 5.6% 57.1% 12.3% 44.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.4 51.0%
13-7 7.2% 35.6% 9.8% 25.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.6 28.5%
12-8 8.8% 17.3% 6.8% 10.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.3 11.3%
11-9 10.0% 6.0% 3.4% 2.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.4 2.6%
10-10 10.6% 3.2% 2.5% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.7%
9-11 10.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.0%
8-12 10.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-13 8.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.6
6-14 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.4
5-15 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-16 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.5% 4.6% 10.9% 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.3 3.1 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 84.5 11.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 3.8 96.2