Preseason Rankings
Davidson
Atlantic 10
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#81
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.5#324
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.1% 4.2% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.8% 23.3% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.6% 15.0% 2.9%
Average Seed 9.4 9.4 10.6
.500 or above 79.1% 80.1% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 76.4% 53.1%
Conference Champion 16.3% 16.6% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.4% 6.7%
First Four3.8% 3.9% 0.7%
First Round20.9% 21.3% 6.3%
Second Round9.6% 9.8% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 3.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 37 - 310 - 9
Quad 45 - 015 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 314   High Point W 78-58 97%    
  Nov 30, 2020 15   Texas L 63-71 24%    
  Dec 11, 2020 203   Georgia Southern W 80-67 88%    
  Dec 15, 2020 164   Charlotte W 71-61 82%    
  Dec 18, 2020 93   @ Rhode Island L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 22, 2020 120   Vanderbilt W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 30, 2020 53   Richmond W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 02, 2021 99   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 05, 2021 90   @ Duquesne L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 08, 2021 47   Dayton L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 12, 2021 174   Saint Joseph's W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 14, 2021 52   @ Saint Louis L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 20, 2021 201   Fordham W 69-56 86%    
  Jan 24, 2021 128   @ Massachusetts W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 30, 2021 85   St. Bonaventure W 70-66 61%    
  Feb 03, 2021 157   @ La Salle W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 06, 2021 201   @ Fordham W 66-59 70%    
  Feb 13, 2021 93   Rhode Island W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 17, 2021 90   Duquesne W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 20, 2021 174   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-73 65%    
  Feb 24, 2021 123   @ George Mason W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 27, 2021 99   Virginia Commonwealth W 71-66 65%    
  Mar 02, 2021 198   George Washington W 74-62 84%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 4.6 3.5 1.6 0.5 16.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.8 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 4.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.8 3.4 0.4 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.1 0.6 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.0 6.5 8.0 9.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 10.6 8.4 6.5 3.8 1.6 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.9% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 92.2% 3.5    2.9 0.6
15-3 71.2% 4.6    3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 46.3% 3.9    1.6 1.7 0.5 0.1
13-5 17.8% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 10.2 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 96.7% 42.4% 54.3% 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.3%
16-2 3.8% 93.6% 36.0% 57.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 90.0%
15-3 6.5% 81.6% 25.5% 56.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.2 75.3%
14-4 8.4% 56.6% 19.0% 37.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 3.6 46.4%
13-5 10.6% 33.4% 14.6% 18.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.1 22.0%
12-6 11.8% 17.6% 10.8% 6.9% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 9.7 7.7%
11-7 11.5% 7.9% 5.5% 2.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.6 2.5%
10-8 11.2% 3.3% 2.6% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.7%
9-9 9.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7 0.0%
8-10 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0%
7-11 6.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
6-12 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.8% 9.6% 13.2% 9.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 77.2 14.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 40.9 27.3 23.6 8.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.8 26.5 47.1 2.9 23.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 3.3 3.3 60.0 30.0 3.3