IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas
Big 12
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+14.7	#15
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.3	#293
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+6.2	#34

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+8.5	#5

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.5%	2.6%	0.5%
#1 Seed	9.9%	10.0%	2.9%
Top 2 Seed	19.9%	20.2%	4.5%
Top 4 Seed	36.7%	37.2%	11.6%
Top 6 Seed	50.7%	51.2%	19.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	73.9%	74.5%	43.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	70.1%	70.7%	39.7%
Average Seed	5.2	5.1	7.3

.500 or above	81.2%	81.8%	49.1%
.500 or above in Conference	71.1%	71.5%	48.5%
Conference Champion	14.4%	14.5%	6.2%
Last Place in Conference	3.5%	3.4%	8.5%

First Four	4.3%	4.2%	7.3%
First Round	72.1%	72.7%	39.0%
Second Round	54.1%	54.6%	23.6%
Sweet Sixteen	32.1%	32.4%	12.9%
Elite Eight	17.6%	17.8%	4.1%
Final Four	9.5%	9.7%	1.6%
Championship Game	4.7%	4.7%	0.6%
National Champion	2.4%	2.5%	0.1%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 6	3 - 6
Quad 1b	3 - 2	6 - 8
Quad 2	4 - 1	10 - 10
Quad 3	3 - 0	13 - 10
Quad 4	3 - 0	17 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	231	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	81-59	98%
Nov 30, 2020	81	Davidson	W	71-63	76%
Dec 06, 2020	3	Villanova	L	67-68	49%
Dec 09, 2020	143	Texas St.	W	73-56	93%
Dec 13, 2020	2	@ Baylor	L	64-70	29%
Dec 16, 2020	246	Sam Houston St.	W	83-60	98%
Dec 20, 2020	42	Oklahoma St.	W	72-65	73%
Dec 29, 2020	303	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	78-52	99%
Jan 02, 2021	4	@ Kansas	L	65-70	32%
Jan 05, 2021	71	Iowa St.	W	77-67	80%
Jan 09, 2021	7	@ West Virginia	L	68-72	36%
Jan 13, 2021	14	Texas Tech	W	68-65	59%
Jan 16, 2021	89	Kansas St.	W	71-59	84%
Jan 20, 2021	71	@ Iowa St.	W	74-70	62%
Jan 23, 2021	69	@ TCU	W	66-62	62%
Jan 26, 2021	29	Oklahoma	W	73-67	68%
Jan 30, 2021	11	@ Kentucky	L	67-71	38%
Feb 02, 2021	2	Baylor	L	66-67	49%
Feb 06, 2021	42	@ Oklahoma St.	W	69-68	54%
Feb 09, 2021	89	@ Kansas St.	W	68-62	67%
Feb 13, 2021	69	TCU	W	69-59	79%
Feb 16, 2021	29	@ Oklahoma	L	70-71	49%
Feb 20, 2021	7	West Virginia	W	71-69	56%
Feb 22, 2021	4	Kansas	W	68-67	52%
Feb 27, 2021	14	@ Texas Tech	L	65-68	40%
Projected Record						16 - 9	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	2.0	3.5	3.9	2.8	1.2	0.3		14.4	1st
2nd											0.1	1.1	3.4	4.9	3.3	1.1	0.1				13.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.7	4.8	5.4	2.6	0.4	0.0					15.0	3rd
4th									0.2	2.2	5.1	4.6	1.6	0.1							13.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.1	4.9	4.1	1.0	0.0								12.5	5th
6th							0.3	2.2	4.2	3.2	0.6	0.0									10.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.4	1.9	3.6	2.2	0.4	0.0										8.5	7th
8th				0.0	0.3	1.7	2.3	1.3	0.3	0.0											5.8	8th
9th			0.1	0.4	1.1	1.5	0.7	0.1													3.8	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1														1.9	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.9	3.8	5.2	7.4	9.0	10.9	11.6	11.5	10.9	9.6	7.2	5.0	2.9	1.2	0.3			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	100.0%	1.2		1.2	0.0
16-2	95.3%	2.8		2.4	0.3	0.0
15-3	77.9%	3.9		2.8	1.1	0.1
14-4	49.4%	3.5		1.9	1.3	0.3	0.0
13-5	21.2%	2.0		0.6	0.9	0.5	0.0
12-6	4.9%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.4%	14.4		9.3	3.9	1.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		100.0%	59.8%	40.2%	1.1		0.3	0.0																	100.0%
17-1	1.2%		100.0%	48.4%	51.6%	1.1		1.1	0.1	0.0																100.0%
16-2	2.9%		100.0%	39.8%	60.2%	1.4		2.0	0.8	0.1	0.0															100.0%
15-3	5.0%		100.0%	36.9%	63.1%	1.6		2.7	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0														100.0%
14-4	7.2%		100.0%	26.3%	73.7%	2.1		2.3	2.8	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.0												100.0%
13-5	9.6%		100.0%	21.3%	78.7%	3.0		1.2	2.7	2.7	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0										100.0%
12-6	10.9%		100.0%	16.6%	83.4%	4.1		0.4	1.3	2.4	2.6	2.0	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0				0.0		100.0%
11-7	11.5%		99.1%	10.1%	88.9%	5.5		0.0	0.3	1.2	2.1	2.3	2.2	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.1		99.0%
10-8	11.6%		95.1%	7.2%	87.8%	7.1			0.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.6	1.1	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0			0.6		94.7%
9-9	10.9%		82.6%	4.9%	77.7%	9.0			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.1			1.9		81.7%
8-10	9.0%		44.6%	3.3%	41.3%	10.4				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0		5.0		42.7%
7-11	7.4%		15.1%	1.9%	13.2%	11.5						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		6.3		13.5%
6-12	5.2%		3.4%	1.2%	2.1%	12.6											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.1		2.2%
5-13	3.8%		1.1%	1.1%		14.8														0.0		0.0	0.0	3.7
4-14	1.9%		0.1%	0.1%		15.5																0.0	0.0	1.9
3-15	1.0%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		73.9%	12.6%	61.3%	5.2		9.9	10.0	8.6	8.2	7.4	6.6	5.5	4.3	3.6	3.0	2.8	2.6	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0	26.1		70.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	91.7	8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0