Preseason Rankings
Texas
Big 12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#15
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#293
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.5%
#1 Seed 9.9% 10.0% 2.9%
Top 2 Seed 19.9% 20.2% 4.5%
Top 4 Seed 36.7% 37.2% 11.6%
Top 6 Seed 50.7% 51.2% 19.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.9% 74.5% 43.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.1% 70.7% 39.7%
Average Seed 5.2 5.1 7.3
.500 or above 81.2% 81.8% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 71.1% 71.5% 48.5%
Conference Champion 14.4% 14.5% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 3.4% 8.5%
First Four4.3% 4.2% 7.3%
First Round72.1% 72.7% 39.0%
Second Round54.1% 54.6% 23.6%
Sweet Sixteen32.1% 32.4% 12.9%
Elite Eight17.6% 17.8% 4.1%
Final Four9.5% 9.7% 1.6%
Championship Game4.7% 4.7% 0.6%
National Champion2.4% 2.5% 0.1%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 24 - 110 - 10
Quad 33 - 013 - 10
Quad 43 - 017 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 231   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 30, 2020 81   Davidson W 71-63 76%    
  Dec 06, 2020 3   Villanova L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 09, 2020 143   Texas St. W 73-56 93%    
  Dec 13, 2020 2   @ Baylor L 64-70 29%    
  Dec 16, 2020 246   Sam Houston St. W 83-60 98%    
  Dec 20, 2020 42   Oklahoma St. W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 29, 2020 303   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-52 99%    
  Jan 02, 2021 4   @ Kansas L 65-70 32%    
  Jan 05, 2021 71   Iowa St. W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 09, 2021 7   @ West Virginia L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 13, 2021 14   Texas Tech W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 16, 2021 89   Kansas St. W 71-59 84%    
  Jan 20, 2021 71   @ Iowa St. W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 23, 2021 69   @ TCU W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 26, 2021 29   Oklahoma W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 30, 2021 11   @ Kentucky L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 02, 2021 2   Baylor L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 06, 2021 42   @ Oklahoma St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 09, 2021 89   @ Kansas St. W 68-62 67%    
  Feb 13, 2021 69   TCU W 69-59 79%    
  Feb 16, 2021 29   @ Oklahoma L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 20, 2021 7   West Virginia W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 22, 2021 4   Kansas W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 27, 2021 14   @ Texas Tech L 65-68 40%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.5 3.9 2.8 1.2 0.3 14.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.9 3.3 1.1 0.1 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 5.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.1 4.6 1.6 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 4.1 1.0 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 4.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.8 5.2 7.4 9.0 10.9 11.6 11.5 10.9 9.6 7.2 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 95.3% 2.8    2.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 77.9% 3.9    2.8 1.1 0.1
14-4 49.4% 3.5    1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 21.2% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 9.3 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 59.8% 40.2% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.9% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 1.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.0% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.6 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.2% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.1 2.3 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.6% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 3.0 1.2 2.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.9% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 4.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.6 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.5% 99.1% 10.1% 88.9% 5.5 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-8 11.6% 95.1% 7.2% 87.8% 7.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 94.7%
9-9 10.9% 82.6% 4.9% 77.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.9 81.7%
8-10 9.0% 44.6% 3.3% 41.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.0 42.7%
7-11 7.4% 15.1% 1.9% 13.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.3 13.5%
6-12 5.2% 3.4% 1.2% 2.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 2.2%
5-13 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 73.9% 12.6% 61.3% 5.2 9.9 10.0 8.6 8.2 7.4 6.6 5.5 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 26.1 70.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0