Preseason Rankings
Winthrop
Big South
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#124
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.7#34
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#179
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.4% 56.9% 42.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.8 12.9 14.1
.500 or above 93.5% 98.8% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.4% 97.5%
Conference Champion 67.2% 77.7% 64.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.0% 1.5% 3.5%
First Round44.0% 56.1% 40.6%
Second Round5.6% 9.7% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.8% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Neutral) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 34 - 5
Quad 417 - 321 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 44   Seton Hall L 76-84 22%    
  Nov 27, 2020 84   UNC Greensboro L 74-78 35%    
  Nov 29, 2020 168   Southern Illinois W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 02, 2020 127   Arkansas Little Rock W 81-80 50%    
  Dec 04, 2020 90   Duquesne L 76-80 38%    
  Dec 12, 2020 307   @ South Carolina Upstate W 84-76 76%    
  Dec 13, 2020 307   @ South Carolina Upstate W 84-76 76%    
  Dec 19, 2020 83   Furman L 77-78 45%    
  Dec 30, 2020 258   Campbell W 80-69 84%    
  Dec 31, 2020 258   Campbell W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 09, 2021 314   @ High Point W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 10, 2021 314   @ High Point W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 14, 2021 320   Longwood W 83-67 91%    
  Jan 15, 2021 320   Longwood W 83-67 91%    
  Jan 19, 2021 341   @ Presbyterian W 84-69 90%    
  Jan 20, 2021 341   @ Presbyterian W 84-69 90%    
  Jan 24, 2021 321   Hampton W 92-76 91%    
  Jan 25, 2021 321   Hampton W 92-76 91%    
  Jan 29, 2021 280   @ Charleston Southern W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 30, 2021 280   @ Charleston Southern W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 04, 2021 247   Gardner-Webb W 81-70 81%    
  Feb 05, 2021 247   Gardner-Webb W 81-70 82%    
  Feb 11, 2021 270   @ Radford W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 12, 2021 270   @ Radford W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 18, 2021 226   UNC Asheville W 88-78 79%    
  Feb 19, 2021 226   UNC Asheville W 88-78 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 10.5 14.0 15.1 13.1 7.3 67.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.0 5.0 3.2 1.6 0.3 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.7 8.0 10.6 13.9 15.6 15.4 13.1 7.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.3    7.3
19-1 100.0% 13.1    12.9 0.1
18-2 98.2% 15.1    14.1 1.0
17-3 89.6% 14.0    11.9 2.1 0.1
16-4 75.5% 10.5    7.7 2.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 47.0% 5.0    2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 24.6% 2.0    0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1
13-7 5.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 67.2% 67.2 57.2 8.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.3% 78.1% 76.5% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 1.6 6.8%
19-1 13.1% 66.7% 66.0% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.4 1.8%
18-2 15.4% 58.7% 58.7% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.4 1.5 0.2 6.3 0.0%
17-3 15.6% 48.7% 48.7% 14.2 0.2 1.5 3.1 2.3 0.4 8.0
16-4 13.9% 42.9% 42.9% 14.7 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 1.0 7.9
15-5 10.6% 35.1% 35.1% 15.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 1.2 6.9
14-6 8.0% 27.3% 27.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 5.8
13-7 5.7% 23.5% 23.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 4.4
12-8 4.0% 16.5% 16.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.4
11-9 2.7% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 2.4
10-10 1.7% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.1 1.5
9-11 1.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 45.4% 45.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.2 4.2 10.3 11.9 9.8 6.2 54.6 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 5.6 1.4 5.8 27.1 19.6 26.8 5.2 4.1 0.7 8.6 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 20.0% 9.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0